REFILE-UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 10% on lower output, higher demand and technical buying

Reuters
21 May
REFILE-UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 10% on lower output, higher demand and technical buying

Refiles to remove extra word from headline

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 3% over five-year normal

By Scott DiSavino

May 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared about 10% on Tuesday on a decline in daily output, forecasts for more demand next week, long-term forecasts for a hotter-than-normal summer and what some analysts called a technical bounce.

Gas prices fell about 7% and closed below the 200-day moving average on Monday, which some analysts said likely prompted some technical traders to start buying gas.

"Sometimes technical traders have more power than the fundamental guys. There are times where there is not a lot of news and computers and algorithms can drive the prices up and down regardless of the fundamentals, and then ultimately the fundamentals start kicking in," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 31.4 cents, or 10.1%, to settle at $3.427 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since April 25.

That was the biggest daily gain for the front-month since early April when the contract also climbed a little over 10%.

In the short-term, analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year. Gas stockpiles were already around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

But longer-term, the U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center projected temperatures would be above normal across the entire continental U.S. in June, July and August, with well above-normal heat expected in Utah and parts of surrounding states, southwest Texas and in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, output was on track to slide to a preliminary one-week low of 103.4 bcfd on Tuesday, down from 104.7 bcfd on Monday and an average of 104.1 bcfd over the prior seven days. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Energy traders noted those output reductions were due in part to maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Traders have noted the Permian Highway and other pipeline work trapped some gas in the Permian Basin, causing spot gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to drop to a negative $1.52 for Monday. Waha prices, however, rose to a positive 46 cents for Tuesday.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 98.8 bcfd this week to 95.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Week ended May 16 Forecast

Week ended May 9 Actual

Year ago May 16

Five-year average

May 16

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+106

+110

+78

+87

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,361

2,255

2,708

2,285

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.3%

+2.6%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.17

3.11

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.93

11.60

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.97

11.90

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

46

46

21

39

45

U.S. GFS CDDs

112

112

120

107

97

U.S. GFS TDDs

158

158

141

146

142

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.9

104.6

104.6

101.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.0

7.4

7.0

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

111.1

111.9

111.6

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.4

2.4

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.3

7.1

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.0

15.0

15.1

13.0

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.1

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.7

U.S. Residential

5.0

5.7

4.8

4.2

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

32.0

33.0

31.1

31.7

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.3

22.6

22.4

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

71.6

74.0

70.5

69.6

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

96.3

98.8

95.1

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

83

83

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

82

83

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

84

84

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 23

Week ended May 16

2024

2023

2022

Wind

16

13

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

36

42

41

38

Coal

14

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.96

3.01

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.98

2.00

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.50

2.22

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.84

1.82

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.71

2.87

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.18

1.95

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.59

2.18

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.46

-1.52

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.27

1.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

32.03

37.00

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

34.79

40.47

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

27.26

30.35

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

14.50

11.01

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

12.33

9.23

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Richard Chang)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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