By Mia MacGregor

May 23 - (The Insurer) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service has predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season.

NOAA's outlook, covering the period from June 1 to November 30, anticipates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency forecast a range of 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which six to 10 may develop into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA expressed 70% confidence in these projections.

It attributed the expected above-normal activity to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and potential increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

These elements are conducive to tropical storm formation, the agency said.

“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens,” advised National Weather Service director Ken Graham.

Guy Carpenter, which also expects an above-average hurricane season, emphasised that property (re)insurers should be prepared for potential impactful landfalls regardless of seasonal expectations. Past seasons with above-average hurricane activity have resulted in insured losses ranging from under $1 billion to over $100 billion.

While basin activity can suggest trends in insured losses for a season, Guy Carpenter cautioned that it is not a reliable predictor due to wide variability from season to season.

Additionally, Guy Carpenter noted a recent increase in rapid intensification events near the coast, where hurricanes experience a rise in maximum wind speed of at least 30 knots (35 mph) within a 24-hour period.

These rapid intensification events are more difficult to forecast, reducing warning times and shortening preparation and evacuation periods for affected communities.

With warmer-than-average coastal temperatures in the Atlantic, Guy Carpenter noted that this phenomenon will be important to monitor throughout the season.

“(Re)insurers should remain prepared for impactful landfalls in any season, given the inherent uncertainty of hurricane landfall rates and the potential for storms to rapidly intensify as they approach the coast,” the reinsurance broker stated.