20 stocks of companies showing excellent earnings-season trends even as the economy cools

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MW 20 stocks of companies showing excellent earnings-season trends even as the economy cools

By Philip van Doorn

Companies showing rapid sales growth and improving profit margins include Eli Lilly, Micron, AMD and Newmont

Every quarter during earnings season it can be useful to see which companies have improved their profit margins while also increasing their revenue. With U.S. economic growth turning negative during the first quarter, this earnings season's results might shed some light on which companies may best weather the disruption brought about by President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs announced on April 2.

Below is a screen of companies in the S&P 500 SPX that have fared best this earnings season.

On April 30, Christine Idzelis explained that an increase of inventories contributed to the contraction of the U.S. real gross domestic product during the first quarter, as companies anticipated the tariffs.

Because the new tariffs were announced in early April, second-quarter results might provide a more drastic comparison, depending on how much spending habits have changed. But the reversal from a 2.4% GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter to a slight contraction in the first quarter may have been enough to make for some difficult year-over-year comparisons of quarterly results.

Screening for earnings-season winners

One problem with an earnings-season screen is that about 20% of companies in the S&P 500 have fiscal reporting periods that don't match the calendar. This means there is no clear end to earnings season. Through Friday, 450 companies, or 90% of the S&P 500, had reported results for fiscal quarters that ended Feb. 15 or later. And the results for this group showed a slight decline in sales growth, but also improved efficiency.

This is how we screened the 450 companies:

-- Increased quarterly sales per share from the year-earlier quarter. We screened for changes in sales per share rather than raw revenue, because the per-share numbers incorporated any dilution to a company's stock if it issued shares to raise money or to help finance the acquisition of another company. Sales will rise if a company acquires a competitor, but the per-share figure illustrates how much of that increase is "available" to investors who held the acquiring company's stock before the new shares were issued. On the other hand, sales per share will increase more rapidly than revenue if a company lowers its share count by repurchasing stock. All per-share figures are adjusted by FactSet for any stock splits.

-- Improved gross profit margins. A company's gross margin is its net sales, less the cost of goods or services sold, divided by sales. Net sales are sales minus returns and discounts, such as coupons. The cost of goods or services sold includes the actual expenses when making the items or providing the services. Gross margin is a measurement of pricing power and core efficiency.

-- Improved operating margins. A company's operating margin incorporates more overhead and other expenses that aren't directly related to the production of goods and services. It can be summarized as earnings before interest and taxes, divided by sales.

Profit margins vary by industry. For example, auto manufacturers will be expected to have lower gross margins than mature software companies. So comparisons may be most useful between companies with similar business models.

A combination of sales growth and improving gross and operating margins is a good sign for any company. It indicates the company isn't being forced to offer discounts to defend its market share.

Among the 450 companies we screened, gross and operating margins were available for 404 of them. These figures aren't available for many companies in the financial sector, because banks and insurers have their own industry-based measures of profitability. For a handful of companies, operating margins weren't available for the most recent reported quarters because the companies' earnings press releases didn't include enough information for FactSet to calculate the margins. These calculations must wait until full 10-Q reports are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Among the 404 companies subject to the screen:

-- 75% reported increased quarterly sales per share from the year-earlier quarter. That was down from 80% showing year-over-year increases the previous quarter.

-- 55% showed improved quarterly gross margins from the year-earlier quarter. That was up from 47% showing year-over-year improvement the previous quarter.

-- 58% improved their quarterly operating margins, which was up from 56% the previous quarter.

Improvements on two out of the three metrics make first-quarter earnings season look very good for the S&P 500, despite the economic disruption from the tariffs.

To narrow down the list, here are the 20 companies showing the largest increases in sales per share while also improving their gross and operating margins:

   Company                                      Ticker    Increase in sales per share  Gross margin  Gross margin for year-earlier quarter  Operating margin  Operating margin for year-earlier quarter 
   Expand Energy Corp.                          EXE                            110.5%        54.02%                                 -6.83%            45.39%                                     29.50% 
   Vistra Corp.                                 VST                             90.1%        29.78%                                  4.69%            37.50%                                     13.18% 
   Amphenol Corp. Class A                       APH                             46.5%        34.17%                                 33.44%            27.13%                                     24.22% 
   Eli Lilly & Co.                              LLY                             45.7%        82.53%                                 80.91%            45.29%                                     34.44% 
   Monolithic Power Systems Inc.                MPWR                            41.9%        55.40%                                 55.13%            28.27%                                     22.66% 
   Coterra Energy Inc.                          CTRA                            39.6%        44.94%                                 36.01%            65.48%                                     60.92% 
   Micron Technology Inc.                       MU                              37.2%        37.22%                                 18.53%            48.34%                                     32.47% 
   Incyte Corp.                                 INCY                            37.0%        91.49%                                 91.24%            22.71%                                     12.76% 
   Advanced Micro Devices Inc.                  AMD                             37.0%        45.98%                                 39.61%            20.81%                                     15.93% 
   EQT Corp.                                    EQT                             36.7%        53.04%                                 13.06%            74.37%                                     43.83% 
   Enphase Energy Inc.                          ENPH                            34.9%        46.29%                                 42.55%            15.45%                                     -2.68% 
   KLA Corp.                                    KLAC                            32.4%        61.61%                                 59.11%            47.14%                                     40.23% 
   Seagate Technology Holdings PLC              STX                             28.7%        35.19%                                 25.50%            23.33%                                     12.39% 
   Insulet Corp.                                PODD                            28.2%        72.79%                                 70.16%            20.32%                                     17.14% 
   Lam Research Corp.                           LRCX                            27.0%        49.02%                                 47.86%            35.15%                                     31.04% 
   CF Industries Holdings Inc.                  CF                              26.1%        40.71%                                 28.10%            49.37%                                     39.32% 
   Devon Energy Corp.                           DVN                             25.9%        25.24%                                 23.16%            43.12%                                     41.02% 
   Expeditors International of Washington Inc.  EXPD                            25.8%        15.65%                                 15.64%            10.52%                                     10.42% 
   Newmont Corp.                                NEM                             24.6%        41.68%                                 27.24%            52.37%                                     42.06% 
   Quanta Services Inc.                         PWR                             22.6%        11.62%                                 10.85%             7.25%                                      6.42% 
                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: FactSet 

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

Read: Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the information available on the MarketWatch quote page

Expand Energy $(EXE)$ tops the list, with quarterly revenue per share more than doubling. The company was formerly Chesapeake Energy Corp. and began operating under its current name when it acquired Southwestern Energy Co. in October.

Eli Lilly $(LLY)$ ranks fourth on the list, with sales per share rising nearly 46%. On Sunday the company announced results of clinical trials of its Zepbound GLP-1 weight-loss medication that it said showed "superiority compared to Wegovy," a rival medication made by Novo Nordisk A/S $(NVO)$.

MW 20 stocks of companies showing excellent earnings-season trends even as the economy cools

By Philip van Doorn

Companies showing rapid sales growth and improving profit margins include Eli Lilly, Micron, AMD and Newmont

Every quarter during earnings season it can be useful to see which companies have improved their profit margins while also increasing their revenue. With U.S. economic growth turning negative during the first quarter, this earnings season's results might shed some light on which companies may best weather the disruption brought about by President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs announced on April 2.

Below is a screen of companies in the S&P 500 SPX that have fared best this earnings season.

On April 30, Christine Idzelis explained that an increase of inventories contributed to the contraction of the U.S. real gross domestic product during the first quarter, as companies anticipated the tariffs.

Because the new tariffs were announced in early April, second-quarter results might provide a more drastic comparison, depending on how much spending habits have changed. But the reversal from a 2.4% GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter to a slight contraction in the first quarter may have been enough to make for some difficult year-over-year comparisons of quarterly results.

Screening for earnings-season winners

One problem with an earnings-season screen is that about 20% of companies in the S&P 500 have fiscal reporting periods that don't match the calendar. This means there is no clear end to earnings season. Through Friday, 450 companies, or 90% of the S&P 500, had reported results for fiscal quarters that ended Feb. 15 or later. And the results for this group showed a slight decline in sales growth, but also improved efficiency.

This is how we screened the 450 companies:

-- Increased quarterly sales per share from the year-earlier quarter. We screened for changes in sales per share rather than raw revenue, because the per-share numbers incorporated any dilution to a company's stock if it issued shares to raise money or to help finance the acquisition of another company. Sales will rise if a company acquires a competitor, but the per-share figure illustrates how much of that increase is "available" to investors who held the acquiring company's stock before the new shares were issued. On the other hand, sales per share will increase more rapidly than revenue if a company lowers its share count by repurchasing stock. All per-share figures are adjusted by FactSet for any stock splits.

-- Improved gross profit margins. A company's gross margin is its net sales, less the cost of goods or services sold, divided by sales. Net sales are sales minus returns and discounts, such as coupons. The cost of goods or services sold includes the actual expenses when making the items or providing the services. Gross margin is a measurement of pricing power and core efficiency.

-- Improved operating margins. A company's operating margin incorporates more overhead and other expenses that aren't directly related to the production of goods and services. It can be summarized as earnings before interest and taxes, divided by sales.

Profit margins vary by industry. For example, auto manufacturers will be expected to have lower gross margins than mature software companies. So comparisons may be most useful between companies with similar business models.

A combination of sales growth and improving gross and operating margins is a good sign for any company. It indicates the company isn't being forced to offer discounts to defend its market share.

Among the 450 companies we screened, gross and operating margins were available for 404 of them. These figures aren't available for many companies in the financial sector, because banks and insurers have their own industry-based measures of profitability. For a handful of companies, operating margins weren't available for the most recent reported quarters because the companies' earnings press releases didn't include enough information for FactSet to calculate the margins. These calculations must wait until full 10-Q reports are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Among the 404 companies subject to the screen:

-- 75% reported increased quarterly sales per share from the year-earlier quarter. That was down from 80% showing year-over-year increases the previous quarter.

-- 55% showed improved quarterly gross margins from the year-earlier quarter. That was up from 47% showing year-over-year improvement the previous quarter.

-- 58% improved their quarterly operating margins, which was up from 56% the previous quarter.

Improvements on two out of the three metrics make first-quarter earnings season look very good for the S&P 500, despite the economic disruption from the tariffs.

To narrow down the list, here are the 20 companies showing the largest increases in sales per share while also improving their gross and operating margins:

   Company                                      Ticker    Increase in sales per share  Gross margin  Gross margin for year-earlier quarter  Operating margin  Operating margin for year-earlier quarter 
   Expand Energy Corp.                          EXE                            110.5%        54.02%                                 -6.83%            45.39%                                     29.50% 
   Vistra Corp.                                 VST                             90.1%        29.78%                                  4.69%            37.50%                                     13.18% 
   Amphenol Corp. Class A                       APH                             46.5%        34.17%                                 33.44%            27.13%                                     24.22% 
   Eli Lilly & Co.                              LLY                             45.7%        82.53%                                 80.91%            45.29%                                     34.44% 
   Monolithic Power Systems Inc.                MPWR                            41.9%        55.40%                                 55.13%            28.27%                                     22.66% 
   Coterra Energy Inc.                          CTRA                            39.6%        44.94%                                 36.01%            65.48%                                     60.92% 
   Micron Technology Inc.                       MU                              37.2%        37.22%                                 18.53%            48.34%                                     32.47% 
   Incyte Corp.                                 INCY                            37.0%        91.49%                                 91.24%            22.71%                                     12.76% 
   Advanced Micro Devices Inc.                  AMD                             37.0%        45.98%                                 39.61%            20.81%                                     15.93% 
   EQT Corp.                                    EQT                             36.7%        53.04%                                 13.06%            74.37%                                     43.83% 
   Enphase Energy Inc.                          ENPH                            34.9%        46.29%                                 42.55%            15.45%                                     -2.68% 
   KLA Corp.                                    KLAC                            32.4%        61.61%                                 59.11%            47.14%                                     40.23% 
   Seagate Technology Holdings PLC              STX                             28.7%        35.19%                                 25.50%            23.33%                                     12.39% 
   Insulet Corp.                                PODD                            28.2%        72.79%                                 70.16%            20.32%                                     17.14% 
   Lam Research Corp.                           LRCX                            27.0%        49.02%                                 47.86%            35.15%                                     31.04% 
   CF Industries Holdings Inc.                  CF                              26.1%        40.71%                                 28.10%            49.37%                                     39.32% 
   Devon Energy Corp.                           DVN                             25.9%        25.24%                                 23.16%            43.12%                                     41.02% 
   Expeditors International of Washington Inc.  EXPD                            25.8%        15.65%                                 15.64%            10.52%                                     10.42% 
   Newmont Corp.                                NEM                             24.6%        41.68%                                 27.24%            52.37%                                     42.06% 
   Quanta Services Inc.                         PWR                             22.6%        11.62%                                 10.85%             7.25%                                      6.42% 
                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: FactSet 

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

Read: Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the information available on the MarketWatch quote page

Expand Energy (EXE) tops the list, with quarterly revenue per share more than doubling. The company was formerly Chesapeake Energy Corp. and began operating under its current name when it acquired Southwestern Energy Co. in October.

Eli Lilly (LLY) ranks fourth on the list, with sales per share rising nearly 46%. On Sunday the company announced results of clinical trials of its Zepbound GLP-1 weight-loss medication that it said showed "superiority compared to Wegovy," a rival medication made by Novo Nordisk A/S $(NVO.AU)$.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2025 11:18 ET (15:18 GMT)

MW 20 stocks of companies showing excellent -2-

Through Friday, Newmont $(NEM)$ was the best-performing stock on this list for 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 46% with dividends reinvested, as the price of continuous front-month gold contracts (GC00) on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27% to $3,344 an ounce. But gold was down 3% and Newmont's stock was down 5% early Monday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a preliminary deal between the U.S. and China to lower tariffs.

Don't miss: How high-yield bond funds like these can lower your investment risk

-Philip van Doorn

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May 12, 2025 11:18 ET (15:18 GMT)

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