Updates with Goldman Sachs' U.S. 10 year yield target, FX forecasts, U.S. inflation and GDP growth forecasts; HSBC's S&P 500 target; UBS Global Research's inflation estimate and GDP forecasts; Nomura's growth forecast for China
May 9 (Reuters) - Analysts expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to weaken global economic growth, fuel volatility in markets and raise inflationary pressures.
Last month, HSBC, became the latest global brokerage to slash its year-end S&P 500 target .SPX below the 6000 mark, cutting it to 5600 from 6700.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 5300 | 4.25% | 1.12 | 150 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 5700 | 4.35% | 1.20 (next 12 months) | 135 (next 12 months) | 7.35 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 5800 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 5900-6100 | 4.00%-4.50% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 | |
Deutsche Bank | 6150 | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.10 | 145 | 7.35 |
Nomura | 4.15% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 140 (Q4'25) | 7.60 |
BofA Global Research | 5600 | 4.25% | 1.15 | 165 | 7.30 |
Wells Fargo | 3.96% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
BMO Capital Markets | 6100 | ||||
Jefferies | 5300 | 4.43% | |||
Barclays | 5900 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.10 | 140 | 7.30 | |
4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | |||
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
Citigroup | 5800 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
HSBC | 5,600 | ||||
Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
Peel Hunt | 4.20% | 1.11 (Q4'25) | |||
RBC Capital Markets | 5550 | 4% | |||
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 5950 |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 3.5% | 3.0% |
J.P.Morgan | 3.7% | 4.4% |
3.0% | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) | |
Barclays | 3.1% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 2.8% | 2.8% |
2.3% | 2.5% | |
Deutsche Bank | 3.4% | 3.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.5% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.6% |
BofA Global Research | 2.9% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg | 2.9% | 2.6% |
2.3% | ||
Nomura | 3.0% | 3.3% |
ING | 2.4% | |
Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
UBS Global Research | 3.2% | |
Peel Hunt | 3.2% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 6% (FY26) |
Goldman Sachs | 2.1% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.1% |
Barclays | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.5% | |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.8% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 6.6% |
Deutsche Bank | 2.9% | 1.7% (Q4/Q4) | 4.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | |||
Berenberg | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | ||
Peel Hunt | 1.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% | |
ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) | |||||
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich, Vijay Kishore, Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shounak Dasgupta)
((Siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
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