There's been a notable change in appetite for Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 15% to US$7.72. Revenues of 351% beat expectations by US$189m and was sufficient to generate a statutory profit of US$1.14 - a pleasant surprise given that the analysts were forecasting a loss! The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 4 warning signs about Arvinas. View them for free.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 19 analysts covering Arvinas is for revenues of US$263.4m in 2025. This implies a disturbing 38% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.03 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$192.1m and losses of US$3.73 per share in 2025. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Arvinas

Yet despite these upgrades, the analysts cut their price target 27% to US$26.56, implicitly signalling that the ongoing losses are likely to weigh negatively on Arvinas' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arvinas at US$110 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 47% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 43% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.4% per year. It's pretty clear that Arvinas' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arvinas going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Arvinas has 4 warning signs (and 2 which don't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.