The first-quarter results for Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in 7.5% below what the analysts had expected, at US$1.1b. The company broke even in terms of statutory earnings per share (EPS). Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 26 analysts covering Albemarle, is for revenues of US$4.94b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 3.0% reduction in Albemarle's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 76% to US$2.65. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.01b and losses of US$2.48 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Albemarle after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

See our latest analysis for Albemarle

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 5.7% to US$83.98, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Albemarle, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$225 and the most bearish at US$60.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 20% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Albemarle is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Albemarle's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Albemarle's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Albemarle analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Albemarle you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.