It's been a good week for MVB Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:MVBF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 7.3% to US$17.87. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$34m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MVB Financial surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.27 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering MVB Financial is for revenues of US$142.7m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 2.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 16% to US$1.24 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$145.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

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With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 11% to US$21.00, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MVB Financial at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MVB Financial is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MVB Financial's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MVB Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for MVB Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.