McDonald's (MCD) is set to report first quarter earnings Thursday before the market open. Wall Street expects the American fast food giant to show signs of stabilizing after a lackluster performance in the fourth quarter as anxious consumers face an elevated level of economic uncertainty. 

Here's a breakdown of Wall Street analysts' projections, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates:

• Adjusted earnings per share: $2.68 vs. $2.70 in Q1 2024

• Revenue: $6.12 billion vs. $6.17 billion in Q1 2024

• Same-store sales growth: 0.8% vs. 1.9% in Q1 2024

In February, McDonald's reported fourth quarter earnings that missed Wall Street's estimates as the company faced declining sales and an E. coli outbreak.

US same-store sales fell 1.4% in the period ended Dec. 31; revenue fell a modest 0.28% from the prior year to $6.39 billion, and earnings per share of $2.80 were lower than Wall Street's estimate of $2.84. 

The results marked a "low point in recent history for the brand," Citi analyst Jon Tower noted at the time.

McDonald's has sought to stave off competition by introducing new deals over the past year as customers looked to save money by eating at home and rivals launched value offerings. That includes a $5 meal deal last summer and the company's McValue menu launched in January. Analysts have said the results of the chain's value offerings likely won't show up until the second half of the year.

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But with the stock outperforming so far this year — up over 8% against a roughly 5% drop for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) — investors are optimistic that results will be able to hold up in what has become an increasingly challenging consumer environment. 

Read more about McDonald's stock moves and today's market action.

"While consumer spending pressure remains an overhang and 1Q earnings are likely below expectations, we believe MCD is positioned for an improving sales trajectory into 2Q and over the balance of the year," UBS analyst Dennis Geiger wrote in an April 23 note to investors. Geiger holds a Buy rating on the stock.

Geiger also noted the stock "exhibited notable outperformance during the '08-'09 recession and should be well-positioned in a challenged spending environment, in our view."

"Amidst a complicated macro environment, shifting consumer behaviors, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, we reiterate our preference for defensive, diversified players able to leverage scale and brand differentiation to drive sustainable cash generation, including McDonald's," HSBC analyst Meredith Prichard Jensen wrote in an April 21 note, reiterating her Buy rating on the stock.

"Therefore, while acknowledging headwinds, we think MCD will prove resilient during the cycle...," she wrote.

Still, the company could face pressures abroad, with anti-American sentiment toward some US brands on the rise as a result of Trump's trade war.

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs

More than half of the company's revenue comes from international markets, and China is its second-largest and fastest-growing market.

McDonald's put forth aggressive growth plans at the end of 2023 to add nearly 10,000 global restaurants by 2027, with more than one-third of those new restaurants going to China. Trump's trade war could spur retaliation abroad toward American brands and slow McDonald's expansion plan, Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reported. The US has enacted 145% "reciprocal" tariffs on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that "the onus will be on [China] to take off these tariffs. They're unsustainable for them."

As UBS's Geiger wrote, McDonald's faces "potential risks ahead from macro pressures and anti-American brand backlash."

Still, many analysts see McDonald's as a relatively safe haven in an unpredictable macroeconomic climate. Analysts at UBS, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley called McDonald's a "defensive" stock pick in recent notes to investors.

Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Bluesky @laurabratton.bsky.social. Email her at laura.bratton@yahooinc.com.

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