It's been a pretty great week for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$51.78 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 2.3% below expectations, at US$2.9b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.28 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Chipotle Mexican Grill's 32 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$12.3b in 2025. This would be a credible 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.8% to US$1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$12.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.26 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

View our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$57.94, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Chipotle Mexican Grill analyst has a price target of US$68.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$46.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 164 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Chipotle Mexican Grill's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chipotle Mexican Grill. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Chipotle Mexican Grill's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.