Tractor Supply Company TSCO is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, before the market opens. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.6 billion, indicating 4.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The bottom line of the leading rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to remain flat year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has been unchanged at 37 cents in the past 30 days. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Tractor Supply Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tractor Supply Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tractor Supply Company Quote

In the last reported quarter, the company recorded a negative earnings surprise of 2.2%. Tractor Supply has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.4%, on average.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for TSCO Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of -2.91% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Key Factors to Influence TSCO’s Q1 Results

Tractor Supply is a unique and highly differentiated retailer with a strong history of disciplined execution and delivering solid financial results. The company continues to expand its competitive moat by gaining market share across our key product categories and maintaining healthy customer engagement metrics. The ongoing evolution of our Life Out Here strategy builds on existing strengths while introducing new initiatives aimed at unlocking additional growth opportunities. The initiatives are likely to have bolstered the top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

The "ONETractor" strategy, which integrates in-store and online shopping, has been promising. Tractor Supply has also benefited from the Neighbor’s Club membership program, which is expected to have contributed to sales in the to-be-reported quarter.  It is on track to integrate Allivet, which is a privately held leading online pet pharmacy, into its business. This buyout complements and reinforces the company’s portfolio of companion animal, equestrian and livestock customers. The deal enables TSCO to offer a low-cost pet and animal pharmacy solution for its Neighbor’s Club members.

In the last reported quarter, management anticipated positive comparable store sales for the first quarter, reflecting continued momentum in customer demand and strong execution across core categories. First-quarter EPS is expected to have been relatively consistent with the prior year, as solid sales growth is partially offset by increased investments in the business.

While gross margin is expected to have expanded, these gains are likely to be balanced by incremental spending tied to the launch of key strategic initiatives and the operational ramp-up of the new distribution center in Arkansas, which began operations in mid-2024. Our model indicates an expansion of 40 basis points (bps) in the gross margin.

However, challenges are likely to have persisted. Higher depreciation and amortization costs, expenses from opening a distribution center and cost inflation are likely to have weighed on the company's performance. Growth investments and deleveraged fixed costs are also expected to have driven SG&A expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model indicates a 5.3% year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses for the first quarter, with the SG&A expense rate rising 20 basis points to 25.3%. Depreciation and amortization expenses are expected to increase 16% year over year in the first quarter.

Valuation & Price Performance of TSCO Stock

From a valuation perspective, the Tractor Supply stock trades at a premium relative to the industry. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7X, above the industry’s average of 14.8X. However, its stock trades below the historical benchmarks, with a five-year high of 27.91X.

TSCO shares have lost 12.9% in the past three months compared with the industry's 20.6% decline.

TSCO Stock Price Performance

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Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. DKS currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company's top line is anticipated to have increased year over year when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.1 billion, which indicates a 3% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. DICK'S Sporting Goods is expected to register a decline in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.21 per share, down 2.7% from the year-ago quarter. DKS delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.6%, on average.
 
Kohl’s Corporation KSS currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2025 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $3.13 billion, which indicates a decline of 7.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kohl’s quarterly loss per share of 53 cents implies a 120.8% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has remained stable in the past seven days. KSS has a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 166.4%, on average.

Casey's General Stores CASY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.93, which indicates a decline of 17.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Casey's top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.97 billion, which suggests a gain of 10.3% from the prior-year quarter. CASY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7%, on average.

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Kohl's Corporation (KSS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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