Americans are expecting a tariff-fueled price surge. Corporate America says they're right: Morning Brief

Yahoo Finance
23 Apr

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The current earnings period is expected to be dominated by discussion of tariffs. 

The early returns have not disappointed. 

On Tuesday, two members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and stalwarts of corporate America — Verizon (VZ) and 3M (MMM) — made one thing clear: Should tariff costs materialize, we will pass those on. 

Speaking on the company's earnings call Tuesday morning, Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg said when asked about tariff impacts, "We will not cover any enormous increase on tariffs on handset. That's ultimately going to hit the consumer in the market. But again, it's too early to say. We don't know where tariffs [are] going to go."

Some analysts, for instance, have suggested the price of an iPhone could nearly triple were it to be assembled in the US. 

3M, for its part, offered updated guidance for 2025 that contemplates a negative $0.20-$0.40 per share impact from tariffs, a roughly $200 million-$300 million hit, based on the number of shares outstanding for the company at the end of Q1.

In its earnings presentation, however, the company noted this guidance contemplates a negative impact from import duties but a positive impact from cost mitigations and price.

In other words, 3M knows it will have to pay up for some imports as tariffs go up and is prepared to offset a chunk of these costs by passing along higher prices, or what its CFO Anurag Maheshwari called on the company's earnings call "selective price increases where feasible."

3M's guidance said tariffs could negatively impact profits this year, but that higher costs passed on to customers could potentially soften that blow. (Source: 3M company filings)

Last week, Yahoo Finance's Grace O'Donnell highlighted a study from the Boston Fed that found Americans concerned about higher prices from tariffs were right to be worried, citing a Morning Consult survey that showed businesses were planning to pass tariff-related costs on to customers. 

The only question is about the magnitude of these increases, not their existence. 

Speaking last week in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs "are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation." Powell also warned this inflation could persist and highlighted the Fed's "obligation" to ensure this does not come to pass. 

Asked later about his view on markets negatively responding to Trump's tariff threats, Powell said the markets were functioning well. Stocks sold off sharply in response. President Trump has continued to hammer Powell in the wake of his latest public comments. 

Some of America's biggest companies planning to pass along costs is only part of the problem for US workers in the months ahead. 

Reporting from the Wall Street Journal looked at how some smaller businesses could be put on the brink of extinction as the harshest levies on Chinese imports take effect. Earlier this month, the business newsletter Feed Me showed how over a dozen small businesses in food, beauty, and other wellness industries face similar existential questions as a result of dramatically rising costs. 

The latest data from the BLS shows companies with more than 1,000 employees account for about 42% of US employment. Businesses with fewer than 250 employees account for about the same share.

Megacorps like Verizon and 3M have the balance sheets and the market position to absorb or pass along costs and manage their way through an uncertain time for the US economy. Smaller employers could be facing fates that are far more extreme. 

Both buckets of companies put about the same share of the American workforce at risk. Those working at large corporations are perpetually wary that a downsizing initiative could eventually reach their department. Tariffs may supercharge some of these efforts. But at smaller businesses, tariff-related costs might be existential.

As Vestberg said elsewhere on Verizon's call, "I don't think anybody is relaxed about tariffs." 

Myles Udland is the Head of News at Yahoo Finance.

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