By Shaina Mishkin

Sales of previously owned homes likely pulled back in March while prices kept rising. But shifting winds in the market could cause prices to flatten out more than expected, or even decline.

Economists expect that sales of existing homes, as opposed to new ones, ticked lower in March, according to FactSet estimates. Prices of those properties, which account for the bulk of home sales, likely continued to increase from year-ago levels, industry data suggest.

The data are due at 10 a.m. Eastern on Thursday from the National Association of Realtors.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing-home sales likely fell to 4.12 million from 4.26 million in February, according to consensus estimates. Home prices likely kept rising in March, other data suggest. A Redfin index that uses a different methodology than the National Association of Realtors does rose 4.6% from the year prior in March.

Economists broadly expect home prices to keep rising this year, according to a recent Fannie Mae survey of more than 100 housing market experts. The average forecast among respondents, who were polled between Feb. 25 and March 10, was for a gain of 3.4% this year. That compares with the 5.8% increase in Fannie Mae's home price index in 2024.

But recent shifts in the market shake up the outlook. Zillow recently predicted that its measure of home values would drop 1.9% this year.

More sellers entered the market than buyers as mortgage rates fell in March, says Kara Ng, a Zillow senior economist. "With this kind of behavior, we're really marking down the potential upward price pressure, " she says. "How much [...] sellers come back relative to buyers is the key" to expectations for home values, she added.

It would take more gains in the inventory of housing available for resale for prices to fall. Home listings measured by Realtor.com were up nearly 30% from March one year prior, but remained 20% lower than in March 2019, before the pandemic distorted the housing market.

It's possible that inventory could return to prepandemic levels as soon as late this year, said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com. ( News Corp, which owns Barron's, also owns Move, which runs Realtor.com.)

Increasing supply, combined with waning consumer confidence, could soften prices, he said. Listing prices per square foot in places such as Austin, Texas, where the number of homes for sale has surpassed prepandemic levels, have already fallen, Berner said.

"With fewer buyers on the market and more listings on the market, we expect prices to come down," he said. "It's going to be more pronounced in places that are above the prepandemic level [of supply], but the national level is getting pretty darn close."

A decline in prices would be a plus for buyers waiting for an entry point, said Zillow's Ng. "It's a way for buyers to get their foot in the door."

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

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April 23, 2025 16:51 ET (20:51 GMT)

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