Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
24 Apr

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0058 GMT - For Woodside Energy, the sale of equity in its Louisiana LNG project is the next big test, according to UBS. It thinks Woodside needs to sell down more than a 20%-30% stake in the holding company of Louisiana LNG to meet its commitment to a 50% equity exposure to the integrated project. "We think an ongoing 70-80% exposure to the LNG volumes/commercial risk and capex overrun risk is a higher than preferred exposure to a project of this scale and could be an overhang for the stock," says UBS analyst Tom Allen, who rates Woodside at neutral. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2327 GMT [Dow Jones]--Superloop's earnings could positively surprise given the apparent clamor of Origin Energy customers to sign up for broadband internet access, Citi says. It currently expects Superloop to report A$86 million of Ebitda in FY 2025, a touch below consensus expectations. "If we assume that Origin customer net- add run-rate for 2H remains unchanged, then we think this could represent A$1.5 million of additional Ebitda," analyst William Park says. That covers the eight months since Superloop took over the supply of wholesale internet services to Origin, Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2252 GMT [Dow Jones]--Goldman Sachs says it remains uncertain how Trump's tariffs will affect the costs of Woodside Energy's Louisiana LNG project following the Australian company's 1Q report. Woodside yesterday said around 25% of Louisiana LNG's estimated capex is equipment and materials. It expects to source around half of those materials from the U.S. "It remains unclear whether potential cost increases from tariffs would be captured within the announced US$900-960/ton Engineering, Procurement, and Construction contract," says analyst Henry Meyer. Assuming the 25% U.S. import tariffs on aluminum and steel apply to this cost, and assuming U.S. supply costs are unchanged, the holding company for Louisiana LNG could need to fund an additional US$500 million, GS says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2257 GMT - Solid early performance from Woodside Energy's majority-owned Sangomar oil project in Senegal should boost the chances of a Phase 2 development, Goldman Sachs says. Still, Goldman pushes back the likely timing of that expansion to beyond 2030 since Woodside is facing significant capex costs to build the Louisiana LNG project in the U.S. Woodside said Sangomar maintained plateau rates of 99,000 barrels of oil/day in 1Q. That helped the company's overall output in 1Q beat Goldman'sestimates by 1%. Goldman retains a neutral call on Woodside. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2232 GMT - Woodside Energy appears cornered into a 2Q final investment decision on Louisiana LNG, according to Barrenjoey. And FID is likely to happen before the Australian company can sell further equity in the project, which analyst Dale Koenders thinks could create a stock overhang in the near term. Woodside didn't provide an extensive update on Louisiana LNG in its 1Q report yesterday, although it did reiterate that there is strong interest from strategic partners in the project. "Woodside appears committed to now spend most of the budget, and Stonepeak InfraCo sale is conditional on an FID in 2Q, making Woodside appear wedded to an FID by June (potentially before equity sell-down)," Barrenjoey says. It has a neutral call on Woodside. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1859 GMT - Oil futures give up early gains and settle lower with the market rattled by a report that Kazakhstan is unlikely to compensate for producing above its agreed level within the OPEC+ group. Reuters quoted the country's energy minister as saying Kazakhstan can't cut output at its large foreign major-operated fields and will put its national interest first in deciding output levels. "The Kazakhstan story quickly morphed into other OPEC+ states wanting to increase production further," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. OPEC+ already plans to accelerate production increases in May, regardless of lower demand estimates. WTI falls 2.2% to $62.27 a barrel, and Brent retreats 2% to $66.12 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1814 GMT - Capital Power's acquisition of assets in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection for natural gas transmission is highly strategic and significantly accretive, says BMO's Ben Pham. In a report, the analyst says the acquisitions establish a foothold in the PJM energy market and diversifies its cash flows away from the oversupplied Alberta power market. Exposure to Alberta power moves down to 28%, and bumps up the US PJM exposure to about 18% of Capital Power's capacity. Pham says the expected significant accretion, positive strategic benefits, and enhanced growth potential offset any risks that may come from uncontracted power exposure. "Combined with the 38% potential total return and attractive valuation, we believe risk/reward is now tilted more to the positive," he says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1434 GMT - Oil futures are lower after Reuters reports that Kazakhstan, an overproducer in the OPEC+ group, says it can't cut output at its large foreign major-operated fields and will put its national interest first in deciding production levels. The accelerated unwinding of cuts coming in May by OPEC and its allies is expected to be offset by compensation from members that have produced above their agreed levels. "The overproduction appears to be here to stay and there will now be a heavy focus on OPEC+'s response moving forward," Alex Hodes of StoneX says in a note. WTI is down 1.9% at $62.46 a barrel, and Brent falls 1.8% to $66.21 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1354 GMT - Oil futures move into the red after gaining on President Trump saying he's not looking to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and signs of U.S. willingness to talk trade with China. "This on and off, indecisive approach to tariffs that has rattled the global economies during the past couple of months could keep oil-price volatility sharply elevated with the energy complex pushing oil specific fundamentals to the sidelines," Ritterbusch says in a note. Analysts say a 4.6 million barrel weekly draw in U.S. crude stocks reported by the API is supportive of oil. Closely watched EIA inventory data are due at 10:30 a.m. ET. WTI is off 0.5% at $63.34 a barrel with June as the new front month, and Brent is off 0.6% at $67.04 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 24, 2025 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT)

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