ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to €564 in the week after its latest quarterly results. ASML Holding reported €7.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €6.00 beat expectations, being 3.5% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ASML Holding's 36 analysts is for revenues of €32.2b in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.6% to €23.37. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €32.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €23.88 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for ASML Holding

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.9% to €779, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ASML Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €970 and the most bearish at €500 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASML Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ASML Holding.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ASML Holding. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ASML Holding's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASML Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that ASML Holding is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.