The Cardano price remains in a deep bear market, having lost over half its value since peaking in November last year.

Cardano (ADA) dropped to $0.615 on April 16, mirroring the performance of other top layer-1 coins, such as Avalanche (AVAX) and Solana (SOL). ADA remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $3.1.

There are two main reasons why Cardano has been unable to surpass its all-time high. First, while Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high earlier this year, most popular altcoins remain well below their previous peaks.

Second, Cardano has not attracted as many developers as other layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains. This lack of development activity is why it’s often labeled a “ghost chain.” According to DeFi Llama, Cardano has a total value locked of just $300 million, lower than recently launched networks such as Binance, Aptos, and Sonic.

A potential bullish catalyst for Cardano is the upcoming integration with BitcoinOS. This integration, which will use zero-knowledge cryptography, will enable Bitcoin holders to generate regular income.

By using zero-knowledge proofs, the integration removes the need for intermediaries, which have often been ineffective. Charles Hoskinson believes that the fully integration with Bitcoin will bring billions of dollars to Cardano’s ecosystem.

Cardano price technical analysis: can ADA hit $3.15?

The weekly chart shows that Cardano has been in a strong downtrend after peaking at $1.323 in November. On the positive side, it has found strong support at the 100-week Exponential Moving Average—a sign that bulls are defending this level.

Cardano has also moved above the ascending trendline connecting the lowest levels since 2023. Most importantly, it has formed a bullish falling wedge pattern, defined by two falling and converging trendlines.

The falling wedge is about to converge, pointing to a potential rebound. If this happens, the initial target will be at $1.323, up by 117% above the current level.

Technicals suggest Cardano could eventually rise to a new all-time high, as it appears to be in the second phase of the Elliott Wave pattern. However, the odds of a 400% rally this year remain low. For that to happen, various factors must align. The cryptocurrency market needs to be in a strong bull market while expanding its ecosystem.