MW Americans are 'doom buying' coffee, olive oil and soap. What's the one thing I should stockpile to avoid tariff price hikes?

By Quentin Fottrell

Some purchases have echoes of the early days of the pandemic

People are running scared - and heading to the grocery store and car lot.

President Donald Trump's tariffs, assuming they go ahead in their current form, will add to the cost of consumer goods. While inflation hurts your ability to spend, a prolonged recession could, in theory, lead to a spike in job losses. Fed officials last Thursday signaled that they were more concerned about the former, likely due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on the cost of everyday items. "I intend to keep my eye squarely focused on the outlook for inflation," Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee this year, said in a speech to a finance committee.

Consumers are bulk-buying certain items. During the two days after Trump's "liberation day" announcement on tariffs on April 2, sales volume increased in key nonperishables: canned and jarred vegetables rose 29%, instant coffee rose 21% and ketchup was up 18% versus the prior week, according to Consumer Edge, a data-insights company, which collected data through Basketview, a consumer-purchase dataset. "Volume also increased notably compared to the average of all Thursdays and Fridays in 2025," the report said. "At the same time, items per transaction at Walmart $(WMT)$ and Target $(TGT)$ moved higher after weeks of stability."

Does one must-have item even exist? Buying now does make sense for people who need to trade in their old jalopy. Americans, those who can afford it, are buying more cars in order to lock in at a more affordable price. New-car sales rose by 9% year over year to 1.59 million units in March, as people rushed to upgrade their vehicles before the new tariffs took effect. The average price of a used car in the U.S. hovers at around $25,000, and the average price of a new car is nearly double that. Estimates on the increase in the price of new cars due to tariffs range from $3,500 to $15,000 per car, depending on the model.

Does one must-have item even exist? Buying now does make sense for people who need to trade in their old jalopy.

"Automakers are absorbing the costs to keep prices competitive - but that won't last forever," says CarEdge.com, which gives advice on car purchases. "As supply chains adjust, expect higher manufacturers' suggested retail price and fewer discounts on imported vehicles later in 2025. That means spring and early summer could be your last chance to buy before price hikes hit. As of April, about two-thirds of dealer inventory is still made up of leftover 2024 models, which means dealers are getting desperate to move them before summer."

Higher prices and a possible recession create a double-edged sword. Amid the debacle over tariffs, which appear to be changing almost every day, members of the Moneyist group on Facebook $(META)$ provided anecdotal evidence of what people are stocking up on and/or fear will be most costly if and when the president's tariffs take effect. The items members are either buying in bulk or planning to stock up on include coffee, olive oil - 97% of which is imported - laundry detergent, pet food, liquid soap and toilet tissue. In other words, they too are battening down the hatches on their pantry by stocking up on nonperishables.

Some purchases, meanwhile, have echoes of the pandemic, especially as more than 40% of Americans have said that they're stockpiling or considering it. One Moneyist reader recalled bulk buying toilet paper, despite 99% of toilet paper being produced domestically. "I needed a bag of food for my cat. It was on sale for $15 a bag at the store I go to. That same store offered a free 24-pack of toilet paper with a $50 purchase. I bought two bags of cat food instead of one to bring my grocery bill up to $50 to get the free toilet paper. I won't have to buy cat food for a while longer and I got free toilet paper."

Related: I'm cashing out and selling all my worldly belongings. Is that wise?

Cash, stocks and automobiles

Tariffs keep changing, and it's making consumers nervous. Trump suspended "reciprocal" tariffs for most countries last Wednesday, imposing a 10% rate for 90 days, but raised those on Chinese imports to 145%, including a previous 20% levy. The existing tariffs include a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports and a 25% duty for cars and some automobile parts. There was also temporary good news for Apple $(AAPL)$ and Nvidia $(NVDA)$ with tariff exemptions for laptops, semiconductor storage devices and smartphones, among other tech items, though by Sunday it sounded like targeted tariffs on tech are still in the works.

Others - including Warren Buffett - are stockpiling another key item: cash. The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable income was 4.6% in both January and February, marking a 7-month high. Americans can still get CDs and high-yield savings accounts with rates of up to 4.5%; and money-market accounts still offer rates of up to 4%. By all means have a 12-month emergency fund, but people who sell their stocks and move to cash and bonds will likely regret it later. They will lose out on future returns now and during their critical retirement years. Inflation, as the Fed will tell you, is a stealthy midnight thief.

The reason some people are stashing their cash: that tariffs push up the cost of goods and the cost of doing business, which in turn adversely affects consumer confidence and spending/hiring by Corporate America. "Rising concerns about trade conflict can have a significant independent impact on economic activity," says Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at J.P. Morgan. "We are starting to see a large drag on sentiment as businesses and households reassess, which can, and probably will, magnify the direct economic impact of tariffs."

Related: Why even cash is problematic for worried investors in this current state of chaos

It's best to live in that boring, grey netherworld that has signposts for 'Moderationville' or 'Diversificationtown.'

Whether you're building up your pantry with non-perishables or your bank with cash, there is no one right answer. It shows that people are thinking strategically: After all, they can't stock up on perishables like eggs, fresh fruits and vegetables. The only alternative is to buy processed fruit and vegetables, or frozen items, which may end up being cheaper even if they are, in some cases at least, less nutritious than fresh food. Since 2000, the number of fresh tomatoes imported into the U.S. rose by 176%, according to the Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

When does a smart shopping strategy turn into an obsession? The answer lies in that boring, grey netherworld with signposts that point you toward little hamlets called "Moderationville" or "Diversificationtown." Do you need a new car? It's likely they'll only get more expensive. Stock up on non-perishables if you are feeling jittery, in moderation. And, yes, build a healthy cash cushion for unexpected costs or life events, as long as you keep investing in stocks - instead of panic selling against the wishes of your financial adviser. And don't leave too little or too much money lying around in a low-interest bank account or safe-deposit box.

Not everyone is "doom spending." Another Moneyist reader said she is taking the opposite approach: "We stopped buying eggs in February," she wrote. "I am very price sensitive, my husband is not. So I guess I'll probably find substitutes and his behavior won't change unless the price gets very, very high or he can't find the item. We did stockpile some food for COVID and a lot of it went stale before it was consumed and had to be given to a pig rescue. I don't want to stockpile and lose hundreds of dollars again." They're outliers: eggs are an "inelastic" commodity: as prices rise consumers don't necessarily stop buying them.

They have, at least, learned some valuable lessons from 2020.

April is National Financial Literacy Month. To mark the occasion, MarketWatch will publish a series of "Financial Fitness" articles to help readers improve their fiscal health, and offer advice on how to save, invest and spend their money wisely. Read more here.

More columns from Quentin Fottrell:

'I've made the most money buying solid companies in terrible markets'

My portfolio lost 20%. With Trump's tariffs, do I sell stocks and buy gold?

'I'm not being a troll': I bought 'DJT' stock and I'm down 50%. What now?

-Quentin Fottrell

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April 17, 2025 12:11 ET (16:11 GMT)

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