It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL); the share price is down a whopping 75% in the last three years. That would be a disturbing experience. Furthermore, it's down 29% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 13% in the same period.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for Omnicell in our free report.While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Omnicell became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
Arguably the revenue decline of 4.6% per year has people thinking Omnicell is shrinking. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Omnicell
It's nice to see that Omnicell shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 9% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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