Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Casey's, Stride, McDonald's in Focus

Zacks
14 Apr

Last Friday, the three most widely followed benchmark indexes closed a volatile yet winning week. The Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 7.3%, 5.7% and 5%, respectively.

Throughout the week, trade was influenced by tariff reprieves announced on European goods and a trade war between the United States and China. The S&P 500 and the Dow registered their biggest weekly percentage gains since November 2023, and the tech-focused Nasdaq claimed its biggest advance since November 2022. For March, inflation numbers both on the consumer and producer side came in negative, against expectations.

Consumer sentiments, however, have declined further, and all eyes are currently set on developments from the White House and its multi-front tariff war.

Regardless of market conditions, we, here at Zacks, provide investors with unbiased guidance on how to beat the market. 

As usual, Zacks Research guided investors over the past three months with its time-tested methodologies. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, you may want to look at our feats to prepare better for your next action.

Here are some of our key achievements:

Palomar and Heineken Surge Following Zacks Rank Upgrade

Shares of Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR have gained 16.5% (versus the S&P 500’s 12.4% decrease) since it was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on February 18.

Another stock, Heineken N.V. HEINY, which was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) also on February 18, has returned 2.4% since then.

A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank # 1 (Strong Buy) stocks returned -3.48% in January 2025 (through February 3rd) vs. -0.60% for the S&P 500 index and -2.75% for the equal-weight version of the index

This portfolio returned +22.3% in 2024, vs. +28% for the S&P 500 index and +19.9% for the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 index.

This hypothetical portfolio returned +20.63% in 2023 vs. +24.83% for the S&P 500 index and +15% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index.

The portfolio of Zacks Rank #1 stocks is an equal-weight portfolio, while the S&P 500 index is a market-cap-weighted index that has been notably distorted by the concentrated performance of mega-cap stocks since late 2022.

The Zacks Model Portfolio - consisting of Zacks Rank #1 stocks – has outperformed the S&P index by almost 13 percentage points since 1988 (through the end of January 2025, the Zacks # 1 Rank stocks generated an annualized average return of +23.9% since 1988 vs. +11.3% for the S&P 500 index).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here >>>

Check Palomar’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>

Check Heineken’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Zacks Recommendation Upgrades Munchener Ruckversicherungs and Sprouts Farmers Market

Shares of Munchener Ruckversicherungs MURGY and Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM have advanced 11.7% (versus the S&P 500’s 10.1% fall) and 9.7% (versus the S&P 500’s 10.9% fall) since their Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform on February 27 and February 24, respectively.

While the Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon, the Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months. However, just like the Zacks Rank, the foundation for the Zacks Recommendation is trends in earnings estimate revisions.

The Zacks Recommendation classifies stocks into three groups — Outperform, Neutral and Underperform. While these recommendations are determined quantitatively, our analysts have the flexibility to override them for the 1100+ stocks they closely follow based on their better judgment of factors such as valuation, industry conditions and management effectiveness than the quantitative model.

To access our research reports with Zacks Recommendations for the 1100+ stocks we cover, click here>>>

Zacks Focus List Stocks Casey's, UnitedHealth Group Shoot Up

Shares of Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY, which belongs to the Zacks Focus List, have gained 15.8% over the past 12 weeks. The stock was added to the Focus List on August 20, 2019. Another Focus-List holding, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH, which was added to the portfolio on June 22, 2015, has returned 10.3% over the past 12 weeks. The S&P 500 has declined 8.2% over this period. 

The Focus List portfolio returned -2.96% in the first quarter of 2025 vs. -4.30% for the S&P 500 index and -0.61% for the equal-weight version of the index.

The 50-stock Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +18.41% in 2024 vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. The portfolio had returned +29.54% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +13.61% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. In 2022, the portfolio returned  -15.2% vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

Since 2004, the Focus List portfolio has produced an annualized return of +11.39% (through the end of 2025 Q1). This compares to a +10.03% annualized return for the S&P 500 index and +9.87% for the equal-weight version of the index in the same time period.

The portfolio lags the broader market over the preceding year, but leads over the preceding 3, 5, and 10-year periods.

Unlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Focus List, Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. Gain full access now >>

Zacks ECAP Stocks Check Point & Cencora Make Significant Gains

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. CHKP, a component of our Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), has jumped 18.8% over the past 12 weeks. Cencora, Inc. COR has followed Check Point with 18.5% returns.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), which consists of 30 concentrated, ultra-defensive, long-term Buy-and-Hold stocks, returned +3.20% in the first quarter of 2025 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -4.30% decline (SPY ETF).

For the year 2024, the portfolio returned +16.26% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index (SPY ETF).

In 2023, the portfolio returned +12.17% vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned -4.7% in 2022 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

With little to no turnover and annual rebalance periodicity, ECAP seeks to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies whose earnings streams exhibit a proven 20+ year track record of surviving recessionary periods with minimal impact on aggregate earnings growth relative to the overall S&P 500.

The ECAP and many other model portfolios are available as part of Zacks Advisor Tools, a cloud-based solution to access Zacks award-winning stock, mutual fund and ETF research. Click here to schedule a demo.

Zacks ECDP Stocks American Tower and McDonald’s Outperform Peers

American Tower Corporation AMT, which is part of our Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP), has returned 19.3% over the past 12 weeks. Another ECDP stock, McDonald's Corporation MCD, has climbed 10.1% over the same time frame. Of course, the inclination of investors toward quality dividend stocks to secure an income stream amid heightened market volatility contributed to this performance.

Check American Tower's dividend history here>>>

Check McDonald’s dividend history here>>>

With an extremely low beta and a history of minimum earnings variability over the last 20+ years, this 25-stock portfolio helps significantly mitigate risk.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned +5.74% in 2025 Q1 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -2.41% pullback and the Dividend Aristocrats ETF’s (NOBL) +3.11% return.

For the full-year 2024, the portfolio returned +6.95% vs. +24.89% for the S&P 500 index and +6.72% for NOBL.

The portfolio returned -0.9% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index and +8.11% for NOBL. The portfolio returned -2.3% in 2022 vs. -17.96% for the S&P 500 index and -8.34% for NOBL.

Click here to access this portfolio on Zacks Advisor Tools.  

Zacks Top 10 Stock Stride Delivers Solid Returns

Stride, Inc. LRN, from the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025, has jumped 29.7% year to date against the S&P 500 Index’s 6.5% decrease.

The Top 10 portfolio returned -11% this year in 2025 Q1 vs. -4.3% for the S&P 500 index and -0.61% for the equal-weight version of the index.

The Top 10 portfolio returned +62.98% in 2024, vs. +25.04% for the S&P 500 index and +13% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio had returned +25.15% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index.

Since 2012, the Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1767.4% through the end of 2025 Q1 vs. +437.9% for the S&P 500 index and +348.9% for the equal-weight version of the index. The portfolio has produced an average return of +24.2% in the period 2012 through 2025 Q1 vs. +11.79% for the S&P 500 index and +9.89% for the equal-weight version of the index.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

American Tower Corporation (AMT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) : Free Stock Analysis Report

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Cencora, Inc. (COR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Stride, Inc. (LRN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Heineken NV (HEINY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

M?nchener R?ckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (MURGY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10