The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in The Clorox Company (NYSE:CLX), since the last five years saw the share price fall 30%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 15% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 17% in the same period.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Clorox isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Looking back five years, both Clorox's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 10% per year. The share price decline of 7% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Clorox has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Clorox will grow revenue in the future.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Clorox, it has a TSR of -19% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Although it hurts that Clorox returned a loss of 2.2% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 4.5%. What is more upsetting is the 4% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. This sort of share price action isn't particularly encouraging, but at least the losses are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Clorox you should know about.
But note: Clorox may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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