Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Sinostar PEC Holdings Limited (SGX:C9Q) shareholders, since the share price is down 52% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 9.3%. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 11%. However, this move may have been influenced by the broader market, which fell 10.0% in that time.
With the stock having lost 11% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Sinostar PEC Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 22% per year, over the last three years. So do you think it's a coincidence that the share price has dropped 22% per year, a very similar rate to the EPS? We don't. So it seems that investor expectations of the company are staying pretty steady, despite the disappointment. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here .
Investors should note that there's a difference between Sinostar PEC Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Sinostar PEC Holdings shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 49%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
Investors in Sinostar PEC Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 5.4%, against a market gain of about 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Sinostar PEC Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.
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