MW Employee confidence was cratering even before Trump's tariffs tanked markets

By Venessa Wong

Months of uncertainty have left workers feeling worse than they did even during the COVID pandemic, new report finds

Workers are feeling worse than they did even during the COVID pandemic.

Employee confidence, which has been declining since 2022, remained near February's record low last month as recession fears increased, according to Glassdoor's employee confidence index, which was measured through March, before President Donald Trump's announcement of worldwide tariffs plunged stock markets into an historic selloff.

"Economic uncertainty remains a significant drag on the sentiment of workers as tariffs, federal funding and workforce cuts, and general business uncertainty disrupt investment and hiring plans," Glassdoor Lead Economist Daniel Zhao wrote in the report.

Sentiment among business leaders also cratered last week in a Moody's Analytics survey of business confidence in the wake of Trump's tariff announcement, registering the most significant decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Workers are worried about the future. Mentions of "layoffs" on Glassdoor users' reviews of employers were up 4.2% annually, and mentions of "recession," which have been rising since late 2024, were up 16% on a monthly basis. "A lot of this comes back to job security and the concern that workers have if the economy were to weaken further," Zhao told MarketWatch.

JPMorgan $(JPM)$ last week raised the chances of a U.S. recession to 60%, estimating it will start in June, and Goldman Sachs $(GS)$ increased the chances to 35%. Moody's $(MCO)$ Chief Economist Mark Zandi puts the probability of a downturn at 60%. High Frequency Economics believes the downturn has already begun and that "layoffs will surge."

Glassdoor's employee confidence index, which began in 2016, measures workers reporting a positive six-month business outlook for their employers. Workers in government and government-adjacent industries, which were heavily impacted by the DOGE layoffs and funding cuts, reported the sharpest annual declines in confidence last month, Zhao said. The index in aerospace and defense was down 11 percentage points, government and public administration fell by 6.6 percentage points, and the confidence index among nonprofit and NGO workers declined by 4.6 percentage points.

Employees' moods may have shifted even more amid the fallout from Trump's tariff announcement. Zhao noted that "a lot of news has broken in the last week since we collected this data" and said he will be keeping an eye on the manufacturing and tech sectors, which "rely heavily on global supply chains." "There is an open question about what [the new tariffs] means for those businesses, and ultimately what that means for those workers," he said.

Meanwhile, entry-level workers, who are often at greater risk of being laid off in a slowdown, reported record-low confidence last month in Glassdoor's data. Mid-level workers also reported a steep decline in confidence. Senior-employee confidence, meanwhile, showed a more muted decrease.

The confidence of workers in the healthcare industry, which encompasses jobs in many occupations (for example IT), appears to be the most stable, Zhao said.

Economists previously told MarketWatch that manufacturing and construction workers, young workers, low-wage workers and rural economies would likely be hardest hit by a tariff-induced economic slowdown.

Read more: These workers are most at risk of being laid off as the U.S. economy has slowed

Many economists worry that the Trump administration's sweeping tariff plan will result in an economic slowdown while also causing prices to rise, a situation commonly referred to as "stagflation." That's a particularly difficult combination of conditions for consumers to navigate, especially low-wage workers who were already stretched thin by inflation and are more vulnerable to job loss.

Financial experts told MarketWatch that workers may benefit from staying put at their employers during an economic downturn, as the average pay bump workers are seeing from switching jobs has fallen dramatically compared to a few years ago, and employers may lay off newer workers first during periods of business weakness.

While the unemployment rate in March was still a low 4.2%, "uncertainty is a big theme for 2025," Zhao said. "The hiring rate is very sluggish, so you have workers who might be grateful that they're still employed in this uncertain economic environment, but they might not be happy if they feel like they're not making progress in their careers or they're not getting the raises that they want to," he added. "There's a difference between a stable job market and a healthy job market."

Related: Stagflation fears are rising. Here's how to protect your job and retirement savings.

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-Venessa Wong

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April 08, 2025 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)

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