The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a lot of attention about what it might do amid the global stock market turmoil. Some ASX shares are being hit hard amid the volatility, though not every business is suffering from a large decline.
It's a perplexing job being a central banker in these times. The tariffs from the US could lead to an increase of US (and perhaps global) inflation – that suggests rates should stay high to combat that.
However, a large, rapid hit to global trade and profits could hurt economies and mean central banks don't need to be as 'restrictive' with interest rates, suggesting rates could reduce.
Currently, there are some predictions that the RBA may be forced to reduce the official cash rate by up to five times, according to the Australian Financial Review.
A prediction isn't guaranteed to come true, but if these tariffs stay around for a while, it could be a negative jolt that forces the RBA's hand. Five cuts would be dramatic, but investor Bill Ackman suggested the US may face "economic nuclear winter".
With potential rate cuts on the cards this year, I think particular ASX shares could be underrated opportunities for the year ahead.
As we saw during 2021, property businesses benefited greatly from interest rates going lower.
Numerous businesses in the property world have suffered from high interest rates, and I think those businesses are primed to benefit.
I'm looking at real estate investment trusts (REITs) with long-term rental contracts in place as opportunities, such as Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP), Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF) and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW).
A reduction in interest rates could also benefit property fund managers if it leads to an increase in funds under management (FUM) and clients, giving the managers more money to manage. I think names like Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) and Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC) are worth watching.
If lower interest rates lead to more construction and renovation activity, that could also be a positive. I'm thinking about businesses like Brickworks Ltd (ASX: BKW) particularly, as well as Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) to a lesser extent.
Overall, I think the REITs, Brickworks and Centuria Capital Group are some of the more defensive names that could make solid medium-term returns from the current level.
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