Goldman Sachs Thinks These Stocks Are "Insulated" From a Trade War

Dow Jones
02 Apr

On the eve of President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day," investors are worried that more tariffs could turn out to be the start of a full-blown global trade war. But fear not: Goldman Sachs has a list of high-profile stocks that have held up before during bouts of market volatility.

The equity strategists at Goldman expect more market volatility, predicting the S&P 500 will fall 6% over the next three months to about 5300, before bouncing back to 5900 over the next 12 months. That would be about 5% above current levels, but still a little below the all-time intraday high of nearly 6150 from February.

But dig deeper, and there are opportunities for what the Goldman team calls "stocks with minimal correlation to key thematic drivers of recent equity market volatility." Translation: Companies that can hold up better if trade war headlines continue to roil Wall Street.

Billing software company Amdocs topped the Goldman list, showing the least sensitivity to concerns about the outlook for U.S. growth, trade risks, and disruptions from artificial intelligence.

Bank of New York Mellon, grocery chain Kroger, automotive services company Valvoline, and credit-ratings firms S&P Global and Moody's were also at the head of the Goldman rankings for what it dubbed its "Insensitive Portfolio" -- companies that are insulated from much of the daily headlines that are whipsawing Wall Street.

One Magnificent Seven stock, Google owner Alphabet, even made the cut. Overall, the 45 stocks on Goldman's list have a combined median total return of 1% this year, compared with a 5% drop for the S&P 500 in 2025.

There were also several healthcare stocks on the list, including medical equipment giants Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Thermo Fisher, and Masimo.

Healthcare stocks -- despite worries about what Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might mean for the development of vaccines and other drugs from pharmaceutical and biotech firms -- also tend to be haven stocks that post steady earnings growth, regardless of macroeconomic conditions.

"Healthcare stocks are interesting. They have a lot of defensive characteristics," said Jim Polk, head of equity investments with Homestead Funds. "They're often the poster child for politicians taking shots at them." Polk owns Boston Scientific and says it should not come under the same pressure as drugmakers.

Shares of utilities could also be compelling buys now since they tend to pay dividends, which conservative, income-hungry investors crave. PG&E and CenterPoint Energy both made it into Goldman's "Insensitive Portfolio."

PG&E pays a small dividend; it reinstated one in late 2023, six years after it had suspended the payout and more than four years after it filed for bankruptcy because of liability claims stemming from California wildfires. CenterPoint has a dividend that yields nearly 2.5%.

"I love the utility sector," said Joe Rinaldi, president and chief investment officer with Quantum Financial Advisors. "You can get strong dividends for low risk."

Rinaldi noted that many utility stocks don't fall as much as the broader market during volatile periods for stocks - like now, for instance.

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