FOREX-Dollar sinks as investors grapple with tariff aftermath

Reuters
04 Apr
FOREX-Dollar sinks as investors grapple with tariff aftermath

Dollar follows Treasury yields lower on US growth worries

Investors flee to safe havens yen and Swiss franc

Asian currencies struggle in the face of US tariffs

Updates prices throughout, analyst comments

By Laura Matthews

April 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar sank against major peers on Thursday, dropping to six-month lows against the euro, and the safe haven yen and Swiss franc, as investors grappled with how U.S. President Donald Trump's far-reaching tariffs will impact global trade and economic growth.

The harsher-than-expected tariffs announcement sent shockwaves through markets, sinking global stocks and sending investors into the safety of less risky currencies, bonds and gold, fearing that a full-blown trade dispute could trigger a sharp global economic slowdown and fuel inflation.

Trump said he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners.

"What the FX market is telling you, (is) that U.S. growth is going to suffer, and that U.S.-built systems are falling apart in global trade," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst, ForexLive.

"The U.S. dollar was the most crowded trade in the world coming into the year. And today, the knee-jerk reaction to tariffs is to sell everything. Any trade that was crowded is thinning out, and that includes the dollar."

The dollar, meanwhile, showed little reaction to weaker-than-expected data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday, showing the U.S. services sector slowed to a nine-month low in March, amid uncertainty caused by import tariffs.

That report adds to downbeat consumer and business surveys, as well as consumer spending and inflation reports that raised stagflation concerns.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, showing continued stability in the labor market.

As markets digest the tariff fallout, they are looking to Friday's non-farm payrolls report for further signals about how the labor market is holding up and the possible path of the Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.

They are also eyeing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, as a big risk if he is more hawkish than expected.

"They have all been saying, 'we have less confidence that inflation is coming down'. Now you take away the rate cuts that are in the market, (it) can really get ugly fast," said Button.

The euro, hitting a six-month high, was last up 1.74% at $1.1037, and saw its biggest intraday advance since November 2022 EUR=EBS. The dollar fell 1.95% against the Japanese yen to 146.445 yen, and sank 2.35% on the Swiss franc to 0.8608 franc CHF=EBS.

Both safe havens were at their strongest on the greenback in six months.

Britain's pound was up 0.66% at $1.3093. GBP=D3

CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE

Deutsche Bank warned on Thursday of the risk of a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar, saying major shifts in capital flow allocations could take over from currency fundamentals and currency moves become disorderly.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, and increased duties on all goods from China.

Investors are worried that some U.S. trading partners could retaliate with measures of their own, leading to higher prices.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen described the tariffs as a major blow to the world economy and said the 27-member bloc was prepared to respond with countermeasures if talks with Washington failed.

"I don't think we're seeing any threats of a trade war, but are we going to see some of these U.S. trade partners, that historically had good relations, start to diversify away from the U.S., and maybe look at some other trading counterparts," said David Song, senior strategist, Forex.com.

"I think this is where are seeing the sort of diversification away from U.S. dollar, at least over the near term, because of the uncertainty."

China's onshore yuan CNY=CFXS slid to its weakest level against the dollar since mid-February. China's offshore yuan CNH=D3 also hit a two-month low against the dollar, but later steadied. The dollar was last down 0.2% versus the yuan at 7.2791.

The Mexican peso MXN= and Canadian dollar CAD=D3 strengthened, with the U.S. dollar more than 1% weaker against both.

Canada and Mexico, the two largest U.S. trading partners, already face 25% tariffs on many goods and will not face additional levies from Wednesday's announcement.

Currency bid prices at 3 April​ 07:14 p.m. GMT

Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Previous Session

Pct Change

YTD Pct

High Bid

Low Bid

Dollar index

=USD

102.1

103.16

-1.02%

-5.89%

103.38

101.26

Euro/Dollar

EUR=EBS

1.1031

1.0848

1.68%

6.55%

$1.1147

$1.0805

Dollar/Yen

JPY=D3

146.49

149.43

-2.03%

-6.96%

149

145.355

Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

161.6​

162.06

-0.28%

-0.99%

162.98

160.14

Dollar/Swiss

CHF=EBS

0.8604

0.8822

-2.46%

-5.18%

0.8831

0.8547

Sterling/Dollar

GBP=D3

1.3089

1.3011

0.64%

4.69%

$1.3207

$1.2971​

Dollar/Canadian

CAD=D3

1.4079

1.423

-1.05%

-2.08%

1.4319

1.4028

Aussie/Dollar

AUD=D3

0.6333

0.63

0.56%

2.38%

$0.639

$0.6226

Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

0.9491

0.957

-0.83%

1.02%

0.9577

0.9489

Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.8427

0.8339

1.02%

1.86%

0.8448

0.8324

NZ Dollar/Dollar

NZD=D3

0.5795

0.5745

0.91%

3.61%

$0.5852

0.5682

Dollar/Norway

NOK=

10.3331​

10.4019

-0.66%

-9.09%

10.4666

10.1931

Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

11.3986

11.2882

0.98%

-3.15%

11.446

11.2804

Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

9.792

9.8936

-1.03%

-11.12%

9.9502

9.6047

Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

10.8038

10.7452

0.55%

-5.78%

10.8065

10.6662

Who is hit hardest by proposed US tariffs? https://reut.rs/4cqkCLO

(Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee and Rae Wee in Singapore; Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru and Paolo Laudani in Gdansk; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Marguerita Choy and Sandra Maler)

((Laura.Matthews@thomsonreuters.comankur.banerjee@thomsonreuters.com;; Mobile - +65 8121 3925;))

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