Shareholders might have noticed that Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:ATAT) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.6% to US$28.57 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥7.2b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥9.18 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Atour Lifestyle Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Atour Lifestyle Holdings' 14 analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.10b in 2025. This reflects a huge 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 26% to CN¥11.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥9.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥11.82 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Atour Lifestyle Holdings

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$35.65, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Atour Lifestyle Holdings at US$40.23 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$31.41. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Atour Lifestyle Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 26% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 35% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Atour Lifestyle Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$35.65, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Atour Lifestyle Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Atour Lifestyle Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.