Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Merck (MRK) holds a Zacks Rank #3 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.17 a share 29 days away from its upcoming earnings release on April 24, 2025.
MRK has an Earnings ESP figure of 0.33%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.17 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16.
MRK is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Ocugen (OCGN) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Ocugen is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 13, 2025. OCGN's Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.05 a share 48 days from its next earnings release.
Ocugen's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 16.67% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.06.
MRK and OCGN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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