Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the long term shareholders of Robert Half Inc. (NYSE:RHI) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 55% share price collapse, in that time. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 32% lower in that time. Furthermore, it's down 26% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Robert Half's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 23% each year. The 23% average annual share price decline is remarkably close to the EPS decline. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Robert Half's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Robert Half, it has a TSR of -51% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Robert Half shareholders are down 30% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Robert Half that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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