Jun Bei Liu: 2 stocks for the bottom draw and the only realistic scenarios left for 2025

LiveWire

14 Mar

At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the...

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Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-2-stocks-for-the-bottom-draw-and-the-only-realistic-scenarios-left-for-2025\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jun Bei Liu: 2 stocks for the bottom draw and the only realistic scenarios left for 2025</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJun Bei Liu: 2 stocks for the bottom draw and the only realistic scenarios left for 2025\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-14 14:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-2-stocks-for-the-bottom-draw-and-the-only-realistic-scenarios-left-for-2025><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-2-stocks-for-the-bottom-draw-and-the-only-realistic-scenarios-left-for-2025\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-2-stocks-for-the-bottom-draw-and-the-only-realistic-scenarios-left-for-2025","article_id":"2519432528","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-2-stocks-for-the-bottom-draw-and-the-only-realistic-scenarios-left-for-2025","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2519432528","pubTimestamp":1741932378,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the table, according to Ten Cap’s Jun Bei Liu.That view might seem a touch ambitious in light of the market rout that kicked off in mid-February and gathered steam as sticky inflation and a tariff war put equity valuations under pressure.The ASX 200 has fallen 8.5% in a month and is down over 4.5% for 2025. The picture is worse for US equities, where, after back-to-back years of +20% gains, the S&P 500 has shed over 10% in a month and is down over 5% from the start of the year.The headlines and moves are unnerving, but the backdrop for equities remains favourable, and the volatility is creating opportunities to buy businesses at better valuations, according to Jun Bei Liu.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"刘军北：2只抄底股票和2025年仅剩的现实情景","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC.AU":1,"GMG.AU":1,"PME.AU":1},"content_text":"At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the table, according to Ten Cap’s Jun Bei Liu.\nThat view might seem a touch ambitious in light of the market rout that kicked off in mid-February and gathered steam as sticky inflation and a tariff war put equity valuations under pressure.\nThe ASX 200 has fallen 8.5% in a month and is down over 4.5% for 2025. The picture is worse for US equities, where, after back-to-back years of +20% gains, the S&P 500 has shed over 10% in a month and is down over 5% from the start of the year.\nThe headlines and moves are unnerving, but the backdrop for equities remains favourable, and the volatility is creating opportunities to buy businesses at better valuations, according to Jun Bei Liu.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nImage: Jun Bei Liu, Ten Cap\nHard landing is off the table\nCalls for a US recession have reemerged in recent weeks as tariff policies have rocked investor confidence. Combined with fears of rising inflation, which could hamper further rate cuts, investors have hit the sell button.\nDespite this backdrop, Ten Cap’s house view is that a hard landing remains off the table for 2025, and the ‘soft’ or ‘no landing’ outcomes which were consensus views not long ago are the only realistic scenarios remaining. \nThe recent news flow and subsequent moves in equity markets haven’t changed that view. It would take a dramatic tightening of financial conditions combined with a collapse in confidence for a hard landing to play out.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nValuations for many stocks are high - we’ve been hearing it for months - and it has been the richly priced stocks that have felt the worst of the selling abroad and on the ASX.\nMarket leader Nvidia is down over 17% since its recent high, and locally CBA shares are down over 14% since mid-February. There is a long list of distinguished companies that have been hit hard during this sell-off. High valuations, which were present before the trade wars kicked off, are partly to blame for the spike in volatility, albeit against a reasonably favourable backdrop.\nThe wild swings can be unnerving; however, Liu argues these are the moments investors should embrace rather than avoid.\n“The share market is a strange place. When you go to a retail shop and see clothes that you’ve always wanted to buy go on sale, everyone flocks to the shops to buy them. In the share market, when good companies go on sale, everyone steers away,” Liu explains.\nThe confidence to step in and take these opportunities comes from having a view of the fundamental value for each company. That doesn’t mean the outlook can’t change, and Liu believes knock-on effects from tariff wars will dent confidence for consumers and companies in the months ahead. Her approach is to take this into account and adjust her assumptions for each company.\nAustralia is well placed\nThere’s a popular saying that when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. There’s no doubt that our market takes a lead from offshore activity on a daily basis. Stepping back, however, Liu argues that there are some important differences that make the outlook for Australia more favourable than the US.\nThe first difference is that policy rates in Australia remain near the recent peak, giving the RBA more room to move if they want to cut interest rates. The second point relates to the economic cycle, which appears to have bottomed out, with activity levels across building approvals, retail sales, and new orders all picking up.\nThis is translating through to corporate earnings, where Liu is seeing evidence of an inflection point. Profit margins have bottomed and are expected to grow in the years ahead.\nWhere does Liu see ASX opportunities?\nThese are some of the themes post-February reporting that have been identified:\n\nSelectively increasing cyclical exposure in REITs and retail as the RBA kicks off the rate-cutting cycle.\nRotating out of expensive parts of the market into cheaper opportunities or ‘catch-up’ trades to take advantage of an uptick in the earnings cycle.\nReducing emphasis on momentum bets as markets trade sideways with volatility.\n\nAmcor (ASX:AMC) is one example of a ‘catch-up’ trade where investors have shown a willingness to look to the future despite a result that was largely in line with expectations and recent underperformance relative to peers such as Brambles.\n“Amcor is a defensive, slow-growing business, and investors have really taken a view that maybe the worst is behind them. Even though earnings growth may not be huge, it’s turning the corner,” Liu commented.\nAnother example is in the property trusts, which have lagged due to concerns around office vacancy rates and subdued transaction volumes. Liu says she has observed a noticeable pickup in activity levels in the Sydney CBD, and this anecdotal observation is supported by data showing positive net absorption rates in Sydney.\nTwo stocks for the bottom drawer\nOne of the big stories to emerge during February was the bumper $4 billion capital raising completed by Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) supporting its plans to roll out a network of data centres. The capital raising was heavily oversubscribed, with participants getting scaled back on their bids.\nGoodman has been a core holding for Ten Cap, and Liu says the data centre opportunity adds another angle to what is already a high-quality company in the property sector. Liu believes Goodman has a strong existing client base to which it can sell data centre capacity and is a defensive way to access this structural growth opportunity.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nGoodman Group share price (Source: Market Index)\nThe timing of the capital raising coincided with the recent turn in market sentiment. Goodman shares now trade at a 7.6% discount to the raising price of $33.50. It’s not every day retail investors get the opportunity to buy at a discount to the institutions, and Liu says Goodman remains a core holding.\n“It's one of those stocks that—what do they call it? The bottom drawer! You would buy and then you would just put it in the bottom drawer,” Liu says.\nHigh-flyer Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) is another name Liu says is a compelling opportunity on a five-year view. Pro Medicus shares peaked at $287 on February 19 and have fallen more than 15%. It’s a well-covered stock that always looks expensive, but Liu expects it to continue its global expansion, tipping it to become a household name across hospital departments in the years ahead.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}