Shareholders in AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 26% to US$76.80 in the week since its latest yearly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 10% to hit US$2.02 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for AAON

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AAON's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.43b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.4% to US$2.16. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.90 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$114, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AAON at US$125 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$102. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting AAON is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.2% annually. So although AAON is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded AAON's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for AAON going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AAON has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.