ExlService Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXLS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.0% to US$48.43 in the week after its latest annual results. ExlService Holdings reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.21, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for ExlService Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ExlService Holdings from nine analysts is for revenues of US$2.06b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 17% to US$1.43. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.43 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 10% to US$55.00. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on ExlService Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$52.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ExlService Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.5% per year. So although ExlService Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ExlService Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ExlService Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.