• Fertilizer Sales Volumes: Increased by nearly 1 million tons compared to 2023.
• Potash Volumes: Record sales volumes achieved.
• Retail Adjusted EBIT: Totaled $1.7 billion, up 16% from the prior year.
• Potash Adjusted EBITDA: $1.8 billion, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices.
• Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA: $1.9 billion, relatively flat compared to the prior year.
• Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA: $384 million, down from the prior year.
• Potash Controllable Cash Cost: Reduced by 7% per ton.
• GHG Emissions Intensity: 15% reduction in total scope one and two emissions compared to 2018.
• Dividend Increase: Dividend per share increased 7 times since 2018, totaling a 36% increase.
• Share Repurchases: $290 million deployed, retiring 5.8 million shares since the second half of 2024.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NTR.

Release Date: February 20, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Nutrien Ltd (NYSE:NTR) increased fertilizer sales volumes by nearly 1 million tons compared to 2023, showcasing strong growth in their upstream business.
• The company achieved record potash volumes and progressed nitrogen brownfield expansions at two North American sites, enhancing production capabilities.
• Nutrien Ltd (NYSE:NTR) improved retail product margins and lowered expenses through business simplification and network optimization, contributing to a 16% increase in retail adjusted EBIT.
• The company accelerated its timeline for achieving $200 million in annual cost savings, expecting to meet this target in 2025.
• Nutrien Ltd (NYSE:NTR) achieved a 15% reduction in total scope one and two GHG emissions intensity in 2024 compared to the 2018 base year, reflecting progress in sustainability efforts.

Negative Points

• Adjusted EBITA for the potash segment decreased to $1.8 billion from the prior year due to lower net selling prices.
• Phosphate segment performance was impacted by weather-related events and plant outages, resulting in a decrease in adjusted EBITA to $384 million.
• The company faces potential tariff risks that could impact nitrogen, potash, and retail segments, with costs likely to be passed on to US farmers.
• High interest rates in Brazil continue to pose challenges for the agricultural sector, affecting Nutrien Ltd (NYSE:NTR)'s operations in the region.
• Ammonia prices entered 2025 on a declining trend due to weak application in the fall season and the prospect of new supply entering the market.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you discuss the tariff risks for nitrogen, potash, and retail, and how they might impact Nutrien and the industry? A: Kenneth Seitz, President and CEO, explained that the biggest concern is potash tariffs. The US agricultural sector relies heavily on Canadian potash, with over 80% of the market supplied by Canada. Nutrien has engaged in discussions with governments to emphasize the importance of free trade for agricultural productivity and food security. The company has mechanisms in place to manage tariffs, which would likely result in increased costs for US farmers. The timing of these tariffs is uncertain, but Nutrien is prepared to serve its US customers effectively.

Q: Could you elaborate on the improvements in Brazil and the factors influencing the recovery there? A: Kenneth Seitz highlighted several actions taken in Brazil, including cost reductions, focusing on productive salespeople, closing unproductive locations, and emphasizing proprietary products. These efforts have led to positive developments, despite high interest rates posing challenges. Nutrien is seeing encouraging results from these initiatives, reflected in their performance in Brazil.

Q: What are the main factors driving the recent strengthening of potash prices, and how sustainable are these prices? A: Kenneth Seitz noted that the potash market is experiencing strong demand across major regions, with North America seeing good responses to winter fill programs and price increases. In Brazil and Southeast Asia, strong demand is supported by favorable agricultural commodity prices. The current market conditions and demand trends suggest a positive outlook for potash prices in 2025.

Q: How do you view the impact of rising Henry Hub gas prices on your earnings and outlook, and why is ammonia underperforming? A: Kenneth Seitz and Trevor Williams addressed the impact of higher gas prices due to extreme weather and storage constraints, expecting normalization later in the year. Ammonia prices have been declining due to weak fall applications and new supply prospects, but Nutrien remains optimistic about nitrogen overall, anticipating strong spring demand.

Q: How might the end of the war in Ukraine affect potash export costs and market dynamics? A: Kenneth Seitz explained that while Russian potash volumes have returned to the market, Belarusian access to ports remains uncertain. Even if sanctions are lifted, logistical challenges may persist. Current market fundamentals, with demand returning to trend levels and supply constraints, support firm potash prices.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.