• Average Daily Production (Q4): 131,800 Boe per day.
• Average Daily Production (2024): 124,100 Boe per day.
• Oil Production (Q4): 78,900 barrels per day.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q4): $407 million.
• Free Cash Flow (Q4): $96 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA (2024): $1.6 billion.
• Free Cash Flow (2024): $461 million.
• Oil Differentials (Q4): $3.86 per barrel.
• Natural Gas Realizations (Q4): 81% of benchmark prices.
• Lease Operating Expenses (LOE) (Q4): $9.62 per Boe.
• Capital Expenditure (Q4): $259 million.
• Liquidity (End of 2024): Over $800 million.
• Net Debt to LQA EBITDA Ratio: Close to the higher end of 1 to 1.5 times range.
• Share Repurchases (Q4): Just under 700,000 shares.
• Returns to Shareholders (2024): Nearly $250 million.
• Annual Production Guidance (2025): 130,000 to 135,000 Boe per day.
• Annual Oil Production Guidance (2025): 75,000 to 79,000 barrels per day.
• CapEx Guidance (2025): $1.05 billion to $1.2 billion.
• Proved Reserves (2024): 378 million Boe.
• Net Locations Added (2024): Almost 200 high-quality locations.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NOG.

Release Date: February 20, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NYSE:NOG) achieved a 25% year-over-year growth in volumes, with expectations for high single-digit growth in 2025.
• The company has a diversified non-operated strategy, which helps mitigate risks from disruptions such as weather and logistical issues.
• NOG's corporate return on capital employed remains above most peers, with strong returns from past acquisitions like the 2021 Marcellus transaction.
• The company is actively pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, with a backlog of evaluations and underwriting at high levels.
• NOG's financial performance in 2024 was strong, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion and free cash flow of $461 million, both all-time highs for the company.

Negative Points

• NOG faced significant disruptions in the fourth quarter due to forest fires, refinery outages, and other issues, impacting oil volumes.
• The company started 2025 at a lower level of base oil volumes, particularly in the Williston and Uinta basins.
• There is a need to catch up on capital programs in 2025 due to deferred oil volumes from the previous year.
• Workover costs and refrac activities are increasing, contributing to higher CapEx requirements.
• The company's net debt to LQA EBITDA ratio is at the higher end of their target range, reflecting recent acquisitions and increased leverage.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you explain the optimism for production growth in late 2025 and 2026, considering past disruptions like wildfires and deferments? A: Nicholas OGrady, CEO: The growth is driven by spudding more wells than we're completing this year, which inherently leads to growth in 2026. Additionally, completion timing is back-half weighted, meaning significant production contributions will be realized later in the year, setting us up for strong growth into 2026.

Q: How do you view the Uinta Basin's production potential, given recent performance? A: Nicholas OGrady, CEO: The Uinta Basin has been a fast-growing play with significant oil wells. Despite initial production being slightly light, we see long-term potential. We acquired the asset for a 10-15 year development period, and recent transactions in the area validate our investment.

Q: Could you elaborate on the Appalachian partnership and its potential extension into 2026? A: Nicholas OGrady, CEO: The partnership is a one-year transaction with an option to extend for two more years. Whether we extend depends on mutual agreement. If not extended, production would peak in 2026. We will evaluate the partnership's progress throughout the year.

Q: How are you preparing to scale the business further, and what is your confidence level in this growth? A: Adam Dirlam, President: We are focusing on infrastructure to scale the business, leveraging technology and data analytics to enhance decision-making. With $8 billion in assets under evaluation, we are confident in our ability to continue growing while maintaining a focus on returns.

Q: What are your thoughts on the hedging environment, especially with variable drivers in oil and gas markets? A: Nicholas OGrady, CEO: We have been judicious in adding oil hedges at favorable prices and have largely completed our 2025 oil hedging program. For gas, we've used costless collars to benefit from price rallies. We remain cautious with hedging, especially given the backwardation in oil prices.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.