Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...

GuruFocus.com
20 Feb
  • Revenue Growth: Fourth quarter revenue grew 10%, or 11% on a core basis.
  • Screening Revenue: Increased 14% to $553 million.
  • Precision Oncology Revenue: Increased slightly to $161 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Increased 52% to $75 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Expanded nearly 300 basis points.
  • Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: Grew 2%.
  • Free Cash Flow: More than doubled.
  • Non-Cash Impairment Charge: $830 million related to the Thrive acquisition.
  • Cash and Securities: Ended the year with $1.04 billion.
  • Convertible Notes Repayment: Repaid $250 million in maturing convertible notes.
  • 2025 Revenue Guidance: $680 million to $695 million for Q1; $3.025 billion to $3.085 billion for the full year.
  • 2025 Screening Revenue Guidance: $520 million to $530 million for Q1; $2.35 billion to $2.39 billion for the full year.
  • 2025 Precision Oncology Revenue Guidance: $160 million to $165 million for Q1; $675 million to $695 million for the full year.
  • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $410 million to $440 million for the full year.
  • Annual Revenue Growth Guidance: 11% total, including 13% in screening and 5% in Precision Oncology.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with EXAS.

Release Date: February 19, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) achieved a 48% increase in EBITDA and more than doubled free cash flow in 2024.
  • The company secured FDA approval and Medicare pricing for Cologuard Plus, a next-generation colon cancer screening test.
  • Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) completed two studies for Oncodetect, their molecular residual disease test, and generated evidence for their liquid biopsy colon cancer screening test.
  • The company was recognized as a great place to work for the 6th consecutive year.
  • Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) plans to launch three new tests in 2025, including Cologuard Plus, Oncodetect, and Cancerguard, which are expected to drive future growth.

Negative Points

  • Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) recognized an $830 million non-cash impairment charge related to the Thrive acquisition.
  • The company faces challenges in securing commercial payer contracts for Cologuard Plus, which may delay revenue impact.
  • There is uncertainty regarding the impact of the Braidwood case on insurance coverage for Cologuard and future blood tests.
  • The company is experiencing headwinds from foreign exchange rates affecting international revenue.
  • Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) anticipates a sequential decline in first-quarter screening revenue due to seasonal trends.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you discuss the growth drivers for your 2025 screening guidance, which implies 13% growth, and how confident are you in achieving your 2027 targets? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: We're excited about 2025, driven by re-screens, care gap programs, the Cologuard Plus launch, and our commercial execution. We have a strong platform, commercial reach, payer relationships, and IT platform, ExactNexus. We're launching three new tests in major areas: colon cancer screening, MRD with Oncodetect, and multi-cancer screening with Cancerguard. Aaron Bloomer, CFO: Re-screens are a significant growth engine, with eligible patients growing from 1.6 million in 2024 to 2 million in 2025. Care gap programs are expanding, and Cologuard Plus will contribute about 2 points of price growth, mostly in the second half. We're confident in our long-term growth and profitability goals.

Q: What makes 2025 potentially the most productive year in Exact Sciences' history, and how are you balancing product launches with growth and profitability? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: We're expecting strong growth with Cologuard and launching three impactful tests. We've resourced this aggressively and are seeing top-line growth and margin expansion. Our team is capable, with strong leadership in different business areas. Our global sales force is energized by these new product launches. Aaron Bloomer, CFO: G&A optimization is a major driver of margin expansion. We're pleased with the leverage and productivity in sales and marketing, and we're investing in product launches like MRD to ensure success.

Q: Can you provide more details on the margin outlook, particularly regarding sales and marketing spending and G&A optimization? A: Aaron Bloomer, CFO: We're pleased with the margin expansion progress in 2024, and 2025 guidance implies another 220 basis points of expansion. Key drivers include growth and fixed cost leverage, Cologuard Plus pricing, and G&A optimization. We're investing in R&D and sales and marketing to support product launches, but expect leverage over time. Kevin Conroy, CEO: We'll limit to one question per person, but we'll revisit if needed.

Q: How are you addressing the commercial challenges from last year, and what changes have been made to the sales team for 2025? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: We're happy with our field rep team size and coverage. Reps are equipped with data to target the right healthcare providers. Our sales team is trained on new products like Cologuard Plus, which has high sensitivity and specificity. We're seeing increased calls and focus on the right providers, which are leading indicators of improved activity. There's a significant opportunity with 50-60 million unscreened individuals.

Q: What is the status of the colon blood test, and how does it fit into your overall strategy? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: Our CRC blood test is on track for mid-2025 data release. We're focused on ensuring the best effort with a multi-marker class test. We don't see competitive dynamics impacting our volumes. Addressing colon cancer requires Medicare coverage, FDA approval, and guideline inclusion, which we expect by 2027 or 2028. Blood testing will have some impact, but not as significant as Cologuard and Cologuard Plus.

Q: Can you elaborate on the reimbursement progress for Cologuard Plus and any impact from the Braidwood case? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: We've secured Medicare pricing at $592, covering about 15% of our volume. Some payers have contracted at this price, and we expect more over the next 18-24 months. The Braidwood case challenges the ACA's requirement for insurers to cover services with no out-of-pocket costs. We don't expect significant changes, as payers are motivated to maintain screening scores and quality measures.

Q: How do you view the potential of Oncodetect and Cancerguard in terms of revenue contribution and market impact? A: Kevin Conroy, CEO: Cologuard Plus will have the first and biggest impact, followed by MRD and multi-cancer screening. Long-term, multi-cancer screening is a significant opportunity. We're positioned in large areas like colon cancer screening, MRD, and multi-cancer screening. We expect double-digit growth, patient impact, and growing profitability, leveraging our structural technology and commercial investments.

Q: What are the expectations for care gap revenue in 2025, and how does it compare to 2024? A: Aaron Bloomer, CFO: We screened over 250,000 patients through care gap programs in 2024, with triple-digit growth. We expect to build on this momentum in 2025, with similar phasing and adherence rates. Kevin Conroy, CEO: Care gaps are driven by our Exact Nexus platform, payer relationships, and Cologuard's brand awareness. This could be a $500 million-plus opportunity, screening over 1 million people annually.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10