It's been a mediocre week for Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$33.20 in the week since its latest annual results. Cognex reported US$915m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 beat expectations, being 4.8% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Cognex

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Cognex's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$986.7m in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 40% to US$0.87. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$45.51, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cognex at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$37.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Cognex's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.9% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cognex is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Cognex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Cognex Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.