It's been a good week for Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.2% to US$97.84. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$11b and statutory earnings per share of US$4.33 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Southern Copper is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Southern Copper

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Southern Copper's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$11.8b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.8% to US$4.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.82 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$100, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Southern Copper's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Southern Copper, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$153 and the most bearish at US$52.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Southern Copper's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Southern Copper is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Southern Copper. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Southern Copper going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Southern Copper that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.