Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ:VSAT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to US$8.98 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$1.1b, statutory losses exploded to US$1.23 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Viasat

Taking into account the latest results, Viasat's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$4.60b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 28% to US$2.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.60b and losses of US$2.33 per share in 2026.

The analysts trimmed their valuations, with the average price target falling 17% to US$18.71, with the ongoing losses seemingly weighing on sentiment, despite no real changes to the earnings forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Viasat, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$56.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Viasat's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Viasat is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Viasat's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Viasat. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Viasat going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Viasat has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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