By Stephen Nakrosis

West Fraser Timber said key trends that have been positive drivers of new home construction in recent years are expected to continue, but also said potential U.S. tariffs add an element of uncertainty.

Markets Outlook

Sean McLaren, the company's president and chief executive officer, said the company saw somewhat challenging markets in Europe and the U.K. in the fourth quarter, as the region appears to be undergoing a protracted recovery.

McLaren also said relatively high mortgage rates present an affordability challenge for consumers and housing markets. He added that potential tariffs from the U.S. create an element of uncertainty.

"While we cannot control the threat of such tariffs, we can be proactive, creating a stronger organization with a continued focus on improving the cost position across our mill portfolio and investing capital to modernize mills where it makes sense," McLaren said.

Over the medium term, new home construction, repair and renovation are expected to benefit from improved home affordability as interest rates and inflation stabilize, the company said. In addition, a large portion of the population are entering the typical home buying stage, and an aging housing stock is expected to help drive construction and repair, the company said.

"Over the longer term, growing market penetration of mass timber in industrial and commercial applications is also expected to become a more significant source of demand growth for wood building products in North America," West Fraser said.

There are near-term uncertainties for new home construction, "owing in large part to the level and rate of change of mortgage rates and the resulting impact on housing affordability," West Fraser said. But unemployment in the U.S. remains low and the most recent rate hiking cycle is generally believed to be over as the U.S. central bank recently began to cut rates, the company said.

West Fraser added "demand for new home construction and our wood building products may decline in the near term should the broader economy and employment slow or the trend in interest and mortgage rates negatively impact consumer sentiment and housing affordability."

The company said it expects a relatively modest market recovery over the near term in Europe and the U.K. "Looking further out, we continue to expect demand for our European products will grow over the longer term as use of OSB as an alternative to plywood grows," the company added.

Write to Stephen Nakrosis at stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 12, 2025 18:13 ET (23:13 GMT)

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