If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW) share price is up 51% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Some buyers are laughing, though, with an increase of 27% in the last year.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
Check out our latest analysis for C.H. Robinson Worldwide
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
C.H. Robinson Worldwide's earnings per share are down 9.5% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
On the other hand, C.H. Robinson Worldwide's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 4.4% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
C.H. Robinson Worldwide is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling C.H. Robinson Worldwide stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, C.H. Robinson Worldwide's TSR for the last 5 years was 71%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
We're pleased to report that C.H. Robinson Worldwide shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 31% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 11%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that C.H. Robinson Worldwide is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
But note: C.H. Robinson Worldwide may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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