As you might know, Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ:MBCN) recently reported its yearly numbers. Middlefield Banc missed revenue estimates by 3.7%, coming in atUS$66m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.93 beat expectations, coming in 8.3% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Middlefield Banc

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Middlefield Banc's four analysts is for revenues of US$71.1m in 2025. This would reflect an okay 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.92, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$70.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.82 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Middlefield Banc's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target fell 6.5% to US$28.67, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Middlefield Banc, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Middlefield Banc's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 680 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Middlefield Banc is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Middlefield Banc's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Middlefield Banc. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Middlefield Banc analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Middlefield Banc's balance sheet, and whether we think Middlefield Banc is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.