Australia, NZ dollars still on defensive, eyes on NZ inflation

Reuters
20 Jan

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained very much on the defensive on Monday as their U.S. counterpart benefited from a run of upbeat economic data and relatively high bond yields.

The Aussie edged up slightly to $0.6202 , but was still uncomfortably close to last week's five-year trough of $0.6131. Resistance comes in at $0.6248 and $0.6302, with support at $0.6165.

The kiwi dollar stood at $0.5594 , again near the recent low of $0.5543. Resistance lies at $0.5651, with support at $0.5564.

The Australian data diary is bare this week, but New Zealand has consumer prices on Wednesday where analysts look for a mild 0.4% rise in the fourth quarter. Annual inflation is seen slowing to 2.1%, from 2.2%, the lowest reading since 2021.

"Encouragingly, core inflation has been trending south since hitting the 6.7% peak at the end of 2022, falling to 3.1% in the year to September," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. "We expect more progress was made over the December quarter, with measures of core inflation falling back within the RBNZ's 1% to 3% target band."

"All up, if it comes as expected, it should keep the RBNZ on course to deliver another 50bp cut to the cash rate at its February meeting," Kerr said in a note to clients.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on Feb. 19 and markets imply around an 80% chance it will cut its 4.25% cash rate to 3.75%. Rates are seen falling further to between 3.0% and 3.25% by the end of the year.

The Australian consumer price report is due on Jan. 29 and analysts are hopeful the all-important trimmed mean will rise just 0.6% in the fourth quarter, the smallest increase since mid-2021. The annual pace is seen slowing to 3.2%, nearer the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target band.

"CPI is expected to confirm the inflation backdrop is more benign than what the RBA feared and does not stand in the way of a cut," said Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at NAB.

"The February meeting is live, but labour market data since the December meeting have not shown cooling," he added. "While it is a close call, for choice NAB's view remains for a cut in May."

Markets imply around a 70% chance the RBA will cut its 4.35% cash rate by a quarter point at its Feb. 18 meeting.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sonali Paul)

((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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