Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.
So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.
See our latest analysis for Churchill Downs
The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. Shareholders will be happy to know that Churchill Downs' EPS has grown 25% each year, compound, over three years. If growth like this continues on into the future, then shareholders will have plenty to smile about.
Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. The good news is that Churchill Downs is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 2.4 percentage points to 26%, over the last year. That's great to see, on both counts.
In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.
The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Churchill Downs' future EPS 100% free.
Insider interest in a company always sparks a bit of intrigue and many investors are on the lookout for companies where insiders are putting their money where their mouth is. That's because insider buying often indicates that those closest to the company have confidence that the share price will perform well. Of course, we can never be sure what insiders are thinking, we can only judge their actions.
First things first, there weren't any reports of insiders selling shares in Churchill Downs in the last 12 months. Even better, though, is that the Independent Director, Paul Varga, bought a whopping US$495k worth of shares, paying about US$130 per share, on average. Purchases like this can offer an insight into the faith of the company's management - and it seems to be all positive.
Along with the insider buying, another encouraging sign for Churchill Downs is that insiders, as a group, have a considerable shareholding. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$358m. This suggests that leadership will be very mindful of shareholders' interests when making decisions!
For growth investors, Churchill Downs' raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. Better still, insiders own a large chunk of the company and one has even been buying more shares. Astute investors will want to keep this stock on watch. It is worth noting though that we have found 1 warning sign for Churchill Downs that you need to take into consideration.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of Churchill Downs, you'll probably love this curated collection of companies in the US that have an attractive valuation alongside insider buying in the last three months.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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