RBC Capital Markets said Monday that investors had "greater interest" in discussing gold equities including Barrick Gold (ABX.TO), Newmont (NGT.TO), Franco-Nevada (FNV.TO), Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) and Kinross (K.TO) during investor meetings.
For Barrick, RBC said many questions were asked on the company's Investor Day, where investors expressed concerns over the impact of anticipated guidance downgrades.
RBC said investor views are "fairly divergent" on shares, with bulls citing Barrick's growth plus heavily discounted NAV as appealing, but bears noting the company's multi-year low free cash flow outlook, execution concerns, geopolitical risk k (in particular current Mali concerns and Pakistan capital investment) and some criticism of the shift to focus on copper growth.
For Newmont, RBC said investors have taken a wait and see approach to the company following the miner's "disappointing" third-quarter results and the "unusual nature" of the company's cutting
short- and long-term guidance on its conference call.
"Most investors view Newmont as a turnaround story that has reset its progress to its
initial stages. Various investors expressed concerns over the M&A track record of the company, and a preference to wait for demonstrated execution before revisiting NEM as an investment," RBC said, before adding: "This is despite the company's still-elevated FCF generation in 3Q, good progress on asset dispositions, and high ongoing share buyback activity."
Meanwhile, RBC said investors questioned what was reflected in Franco-Nevada's shares following its underperformance stemming from Cobre Panama's shutdown, higher non-precious metals exposure in the current gold bull market, and the company's guidance cut in the third quarter.
It added: "Investors were biased more positively, with bulls reviewing the company's cheaper valuation today vs. the past, and potential upside from Cobre Panama advancement in 2025. Bears viewed low operating leverage as a headwind in a rising gold price environment, plus shares as more fairly valued vs. peers after adjusting FNV's energy/iron ore exposure to market multiples, rather than a gold royalty premium."
For Agnico-Eagle, RBC said the company remains a specialist and generalist favorite but concerns remain about the company being "a too-comfortable consensus long idea".
"Investors expressed concerns over M&A risk for the company. This includes the risk of diversification outside the company's core competence in Canada and beyond precious metals," RBC said. "Some investors asked about guidance risks, where AEM inflation risks are viewed as below-average, but potentially offset by management's traditional conservatism."
Lastly, RBC said investors acknowledged Kinross' "positive" performance and execution in 2024 but concerns remained over M&A risks, an expanding valuation, and above-average cost inflation risks in 2025 as volumes and grades could decline.
"Investors view [Kinross] as one of the more likely acquirers in the sector, given uncertainty over the company's medium-term production outlook and its favorable financial positioning today, but management is viewed as disciplined," RBC said. "Relative to North American peers, bulls view the company's high FCF as a key positive and ongoing differentiator into 2025."
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