Shareholders in Allurion Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ALUR) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 54% to US$0.34 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in at US$5.4m, a whole 37% below what the analysts were forecasting. Losses were a (relative) bright spot by comparison, with a per-share (statutory) loss of US$0.14 substantially smaller than what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Allurion Technologies after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Allurion Technologies

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Allurion Technologies are now predicting revenues of US$37.3m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 48% to US$0.20. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$51.8m and US$0.35 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target fell 23% to US$1.83, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Allurion Technologies analyst has a price target of US$2.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Allurion Technologies is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.8% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 5.0% annual decline over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Allurion Technologies' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Allurion Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 6 warning signs for Allurion Technologies (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.