Shareholders might have noticed that Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to US$32.13 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$186m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Harmony Biosciences Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.79 per share, a notable 19% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Harmony Biosciences Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of US$839.4m in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 47% to US$3.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$838.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.26 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$47.11, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Harmony Biosciences Holdings analyst has a price target of US$59.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 41% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Harmony Biosciences Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Harmony Biosciences Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$47.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Harmony Biosciences Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.