American Well Corporation (NYSE:AMWL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.4% to US$9.00 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 3.5% short of analyst estimates at US$61m, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was US$2.87, 17% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for American Well

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering American Well are now predicting revenues of US$320.7m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 42% to US$8.34. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$326.0m and losses of US$8.51 per share in 2025.

As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 64% to US$12.57, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on American Well, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that American Well's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect American Well to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple American Well analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for American Well you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.