It's been a sad week for Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK), who've watched their investment drop 14% to US$116 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$919m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.80 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Patrick Industries is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Patrick Industries

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Patrick Industries' ten analysts is for revenues of US$3.98b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 23% to US$8.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.98 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$142, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Patrick Industries at US$168 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Patrick Industries shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Patrick Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Patrick Industries.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Patrick Industries. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$142, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Patrick Industries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Patrick Industries is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.