As you might know, Trupanion, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRUP) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$327m were what the analysts expected, Trupanion surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.03 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Trupanion after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Trupanion

Following the latest results, Trupanion's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.37b in 2025. This would be a notable 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Trupanion forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.098 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.10 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 16% to US$54.86, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trupanion at US$65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Trupanion's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trupanion is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Trupanion. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trupanion going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Trupanion you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.