LIVE MARKETS-Fasten your seat belts: This week's economics

Reuters
28 Oct 2024
LIVE MARKETS-Fasten your seat belts: This week's economics

U.S. stocks higher, small caps lead

Utilities lead S&P 500 sector gainers; energy sole loser

Euro STOXX 600 index up 0.5%

Dollar, gold dip; crude collapses >5%; bitcoin up ~1%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.27%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS: THIS WEEK'S ECONOMICS

On Monday, investors dipped their toes in the rough seas of what promises to be a tumultuous week, with the likes of Alphabet GOOGL.O, Meta Platforms META.O, Apple AAPL.O, Amazon.com AMZN.O slated to post quarterly results.

There's also a whole truckload of economic indicators due to arrive this week.

The trouble is, none of that is happening today.

TUESDAY

The festivities begin tomorrow, with the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which should shed a little light on labor market churn.

Last time JOLTS rolled around it showed job openings rising 4.3% to 8.04 million, with hires, fires and quits all slowing down - seeming to support the timing of the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut.

For the September report, analysts expect job openings to back down by 0.6% to 7.99 million.

The Conference Board will also be on hand for its October Consumer Confidence report. It will be interesting to see what happens with the job confidence element of that report, so see how well it jibes with JOLTS.

Case-Shiller is scheduled to drop the first of several housing market indicators with its report for August. Economists polled by Reuters expect the 20-city composite to show a cool-down in home price growth, to 5.0% from 5.9% year-on-year.

WEDNESDAY

The Commerce Department's first stab at third-quarter GDP is seen coming in at 3%, a repeat of the second-quarter growth rate.

Payrolls processor ADP is on deck to release its National Employment index, which tracks private sector employment. While the NEI has been dismissed as an inaccurate predictor of official Labor Department data, its track record has been improving:

Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show an 0.8% increase in signed contracts for the sales of pre-owned homes in September, while the Mortgage Bankers Association will issue its weekly home load statistics.

THURSDAY

Thursday's headliner will be the Commerce Department's broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures report, which is expected to show an uptick in personal income and consumer spending.

Crucially, it's also seen showing year-on-year headline and core price growth printing at 2.1% and 2.6%, nudging ever closer to Powell & Co's average annual 2% inflation target.

The PCE price index will be the final piece of September's inflation puzzle:

Weekly initial jobless claims and Challenger Gray will team up to provide a snapshot of layoffs and unemployment applications.

FRIDAY

Market participants will stumble into the weekend, their heads swimming with the Labor Department's much anticipated October jobs report, which is predicted to show a significant hiring slowdown.

The U.S. economy is seen having added 123,000 jobs this month, an abrupt, 51.7% deceleration from September's 254,000 job adds. The jobless rate is predicted to have held firm at 4.1%.

It remains to be seen whether the Boeing strike or Hurricane Milton will show up in the data, but Barclays and Pantheon Macroeconomics (among others) believe those events will distort the headline.

"Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40k," writes Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon. "The hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25k is plausible."

But then the Institute for Supply Management is chiming in with its October PMI, which is estimated to stay essentially unchanged at 47.6, mired in contraction territory for the 7th month running.

The Commerce Department is also due to provide numbers on September construction outlays, which is predicted to have been unchanged from August.

(Stephen Culp)

*****

FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

U.S. HOUSING MARKET'S AGONY COULD SEE SOME RELIEF NEXT YEAR - CLICK HERE

CRUDE OIL FUTURES: DRILLING DOWN TO SUPPORT, IS IT SOLID? - CLICK HERE

UK MOTOR FINANCE RULING HITS EXPOSED LENDERS, ANALYSTS CRUNCH NUMBERS - CLICK HERE

EU BEVERAGES MAY BE FACING A NASTY HANGOVER ON NOV. 6 - CLICK HERE

WHY DID THE NIKKEI FINISH HIGHER ON MONDAY? - CLICK HERE

INVESTORS SEE FRENCH AND GERMAN STOCKS AS EUROPE'S 'WEAK LINKS' - JPM - CLICK HERE

AIRLINES LIFT EUROPE AS OIL PROVIDES DRAG - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: SCREENS FLASH GREEN - CLICK HERE

EVENT RISKS GALORE THIS WEEK CLICK HERE

CrudeOilFuts10282024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3NJe5QU

JOLTS hires and jobs confidence https://reut.rs/48saWys

ADP https://reut.rs/4fkTZbj

Inflation gauges https://reut.rs/3YlUpHG

Challenger Gray and jobless claims https://reut.rs/4e3FUxO

Nonfarm payrolls https://reut.rs/3UsYoRn

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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