The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, American Electric Power Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEP) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for American Electric Power Company

What Is American Electric Power Company's Debt?

As you can see below, American Electric Power Company had US$43.7b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

How Healthy Is American Electric Power Company's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that American Electric Power Company had liabilities of US$10.2b due within a year, and liabilities of US$63.3b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$428.2m as well as receivables valued at US$2.82b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$70.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of US$53.9b, we think shareholders really should watch American Electric Power Company's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 2.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9 hit our confidence in American Electric Power Company like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, one redeeming factor is that American Electric Power Company grew its EBIT at 14% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine American Electric Power Company's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, American Electric Power Company burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both American Electric Power Company's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that American Electric Power Company is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Overall, it seems to us that American Electric Power Company's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with American Electric Power Company (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.