The earnings calendar quiets down but don't put up your "gone fishing" sign for the first week of the fourth quarter yet. Tesla (TSLA) and the big Chinese-based EV makers are set to report their quarterly deliveries during the coming week. In addition, a heavy slate of economic data could have some impact on Fed strategy, or at least what the market expects that strategy to be. Also, Nike (NKE), Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Constellation Brands (STZ) headline the week's quiet earnings calendar.
Last but not least, a long list of top stocks have sidled up to buy points as the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 press to record highs, and the Nasdaq extends a rebound toward its prior peak. IBD's Stock Market Exposure guide remains at 80% to 100% invested as the market heads into the fourth quarter and toward the holiday shopping season.
↑ XThe stock market rally continues to make progress, offering new buying opportunities and setups for investors, including Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Ryan Specialty (RYAN), Amazon.com (AMZN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Mastercard (MA). Texas Roadhouse is in a buy zone above a tight, eight-week flat base; it's one of several restaurant stocks behaving well. Ryan could be forming a handle after a big thrust higher for the insurance broker. Amazon might be working on a handle as well. Robinhood is hovering around a couple of entries as brokers and bitcoin plays perk up. Mastercard is actionable, in a buy zone and a potential winner from antitrust woes at archrival Visa (V).
The coming week brings a hefty batch of economic data with subdued expectations. With markets pretty evenly split over whether the next Fed rate cut will be big or small, economic surprises in either direction could move the needle. Friday's September jobs report is expected to be almost a replay of August's, with 145,000 new jobs, including 125,000 private sector jobs, and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate, FactSet says. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey index, out Tuesday, is seen remaining well into contraction territory. The ISM service-sector index, out Thursday, should rise to 51.8 from 51.5, consistent with modest GDP growth.
Tame PCE Inflation Keeps Another Big Fed Rate Cut In Play
Tesla's third-quarter vehicle delivery numbers are expected on Wednesday. Analysts project 462,000 units for Q3, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, FactSet says. This would represent the third-best total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,140 and Q4 2023's record-setting 484,507 deliveries. China EV makers Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) release delivery figures early Tuesday. EV giant BYD (BYDDF) should also report. Li Auto will still lead Nio and XPeng, analysts say, but momentum is with the latter two. Nio will begin deliveries of the Onvo L60, a cheaper, higher-spec rival to the Model Y, on Sept. 28, with a fast ramp-up into 2025. BYD, which is in a buy zone, may top 400,000 EVs if bottlenecks ease.
Tesla Stock Rebounds As The Robotaxi Approaches; Waymo Tops 100,000 Weekly Fares
In a fairly slim earnings calendar next week, Nike will conduct its final earnings report under CEO John Donahoe after Tuesday's close. New boss Elliott Hill takes over Oct. 14, and faces a steady downhill forecast for sales and earnings. Nike is up 27% from an August low. Carnival, McCormick (MCK), Acuity Brands (AYI) and Constellation Brands are among the others scheduled to report.
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